Will Israel's Approval of 19 New Settlements Spark More Tension in the West Bank?

The Israeli government's recent approval of 19 new settlements in the occupied West Bank represents a significant escalation in its settlement expansion policy, raising concerns about the future of a two-state solution and increasing tensions in the region. This decision comes amid heightened violence since the Gaza conflict began in October 2023, invoking strong condemnation from international leaders and organisations.

Last updated: 05 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The Israeli security cabinet has officially approved the recognition of 19 new settlements in the West Bank, marking a continuation of its aggressive settlement policy under the current right-wing government. Far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Defence Minister Israel Katz, both proponents of the settlement expansion, have framed this decision as a critical step in blocking any future establishment of a Palestinian state. This move comes at a time when violence in the occupied territories has surged, particularly since the onset of the conflict in Gaza, further complicating an already volatile situation.

Key takeaways

19 new settlements in the West Bank have been approved by Israel's security cabinet.
The decision is seen as a strategy to prevent the formation of a Palestinian state.
International condemnation includes statements from Saudi Arabia and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

Timeline: how we got here

Understanding the recent developments requires a brief look back at key milestones:

October 2023: Violence escalates in the occupied West Bank amidst the Gaza conflict.
September 2023: The UK, alongside Australia and Canada, officially recognised a Palestinian state.
August 2023: Plans approved for over 3,000 homes in the E1 area, a contentious project frozen for decades.
May 2023: Israel's government sanctioned the approval of 22 new settlements, marking the largest expansion in decades.
2022: The current Israeli administration, known for its right-leaning policies, takes office and begins increasing settlement approvals.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The most recent approval of 19 new settlements is a notable development, bringing the total number of settlements sanctioned in the last three years to 69. This decision has also involved the re-establishment of settlements that were dismantled nearly 20 years ago, which points to a significant shift in Israeli policy towards the West Bank.

What was already established

Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank have long been deemed illegal under international law. The push for expansion has been a consistent strategy for successive Israeli governments, particularly since 2022, which has seen a marked increase in settlement approvals and the legalisation of previously unauthorised outposts.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

For UK citizens, the implications of these developments may be felt indirectly. Heightened tensions in the Middle East can affect global oil prices, international relations, and even domestic security considerations. Additionally, public sentiment towards Israel and Palestine may influence UK foreign policy and community relations.

Businesses and jobs

Businesses involved in the construction and real estate sectors in Israel may see a surge in demand due to increased settlement activity. However, this could also lead to increased opposition from international businesses and investors wary of reputational risks associated with operating in occupied territories.

Policy and regulation

The UK government’s recognition of a Palestinian state, despite its symbolic nature, indicates a shift in diplomatic stance that may lead to further calls for action against Israeli settlement policies. Future consultations and votes in Parliament could reflect increased pressure from constituents advocating for a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Numbers that matter

Approximately 700,000 settlers currently reside in around 160 settlements across the West Bank and East Jerusalem.
69 is the total number of settlements approved by the Israeli government over the past three years.
22 new settlements were approved in May 2023, marking the largest expansion in decades.
Over 3,000 homes were approved for construction in the E1 project area in August 2023.
Sweeping condemnation from various nations, including Saudi Arabia, signals international discontent with settlement expansion.

Definitions and jargon buster

Settlements: Communities established by Israel in the West Bank, often seen as illegal under international law.
Two-state solution: A proposed solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict envisioning an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel.
E1 project: A controversial Israeli housing project aimed at connecting Jerusalem with the Maale Adumim settlement.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, expect increased tensions in the West Bank and potential escalations of violence as these new settlements are integrated into the region. International reactions may further unfold, particularly from Arab nations, and pressure may mount on the UK government to take a stronger stance.

Medium term (1–6 months)

As settlement expansion continues, the ramifications for peace negotiations will become clearer. The viability of the two-state solution will be further challenged, and international actors may seek to mediate or impose sanctions against Israel's settlement policies.

Signals to watch

Monitoring ceasefire agreements and violence levels in the region.
Statements from key international leaders and organisations regarding settlement policies.
Any changes in UK governmental policy regarding recognition of Palestine or responses to Israeli actions.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed about developments in the region through reliable news sources.
Engage in discussions about the implications of settlement policies within your community.
Support humanitarian efforts aimed at assisting those affected by the conflict.

Don’t

Don’t overlook the potential impact of these developments on international relations.
Don’t engage in polarising rhetoric that could exacerbate tensions.
Don’t ignore calls for peaceful resolutions and dialogue between conflicting parties.

Checklist

Understand the basic terms and context surrounding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Follow key international leaders and organisations for their latest statements.
Consider how UK foreign policy could evolve in response to settlement expansions.
Review your own stance and understanding of the conflict regularly.
Support NGOs working towards peace and humanitarian relief.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

It is crucial to recognise that the situation remains fluid, with potential for rapid changes in violence levels and international diplomatic relations. The Israeli government's commitment to continued settlement expansion may elicit stronger international responses, including sanctions or calls for boycotts. However, the exact nature of these responses is uncertain and could vary widely depending on geopolitical dynamics.

Bottom line

The recent approval of new settlements in the occupied West Bank signifies a deepening commitment by the Israeli government to expand its territorial footprint, potentially compromising the prospects for a two-state solution. As tensions rise, the international community, including the UK, must navigate a complex landscape of diplomatic relations, humanitarian concerns, and long-standing historical grievances.

FAQs

What are the implications of Israel's new settlements in the West Bank?

The implications of Israel's new settlements include increased tensions in the region, potential violence, and further complications for the peace process aimed at establishing a Palestinian state.

How has the international community responded to the settlement expansion?

The international community has largely condemned the expansion, with notable criticism from Arab nations, UN officials, and various governments, asserting that it undermines the viability of a two-state solution.

What is the two-state solution?

The two-state solution refers to a proposed framework for peace that envisions the establishment of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel, with borders generally based on pre-1967 lines.