Did Blair Really Believe Voters Didn't Want More Welsh Powers?

Newly released documents reveal that Tony Blair believed his Labour government had effectively addressed the threat of the UK's breakup through devolution in Wales and Scotland. During a cabinet meeting in 2004, Blair stated that there was "no appetite" for further powers among voters in these regions, suggesting his government had "lanced the boil of separatism." However, the ongoing debates about independence and devolution in Wales and Scotland indicate that these issues remain contentious.

Last updated: 14 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

Recent cabinet papers released from the National Archives have shed light on a pivotal discussion regarding further devolution in Wales, held on 22 July 2004. The minutes of this meeting indicate that Tony Blair and his cabinet were largely against extending full law-making powers to the then Welsh Assembly, as they believed there was insufficient public support for more radical changes. This stance has renewed interest in the historical context of devolution and its implications for current political dynamics in the UK.

Key takeaways

Blair claimed devolution had resolved the threat of separatism in Wales and Scotland.
The cabinet rejected full law-making powers for the Welsh Assembly in 2004.
Public support for further devolution was deemed insufficient at the time.
The ongoing debate over independence in Scotland and Wales continues to influence UK politics.
The Richard Commission's recommendations were seen as too radical by the Labour government.

Timeline: how we got here

The evolution of devolution in the UK has been marked by key milestones over the last few decades:

1997: Tony Blair's Labour government establishes the Welsh Assembly with a 60-member legislative body.
1999: The National Assembly for Wales officially opens, taking over £7bn of the budget.
2004: The Richard Commission recommends increased powers for the Welsh Assembly, leading to cabinet discussions.
2006: Legislation allows the assembly to make laws in devolved areas, contingent on Parliament's approval.
2011: Welsh voters approve direct law-making powers for the assembly in a referendum by 63.5% to 36.5%.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The release of cabinet papers from 2004 has sparked renewed discussions on the efficacy of devolution and its impact on separatist sentiments in Wales and Scotland. Blair's assertion that he had mitigated the risk of separatism is now under scrutiny in light of ongoing calls for independence in both regions.

What was already established

It was previously understood that Blair's government supported the establishment of the Welsh Assembly as a measure to decentralise power and address regional grievances. However, the internal opposition within Labour regarding further devolution has been an ongoing narrative, reflecting the party's complex relationship with Welsh and Scottish nationalism.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The discussions surrounding devolution and its limitations have tangible effects on public services in Wales. Decisions on health, education, and local governance are directly influenced by the assembly's powers, impacting the daily lives of Welsh citizens. Limited powers can hinder the assembly's ability to respond to unique regional needs effectively.

Businesses and jobs

Businesses in Wales must navigate a landscape shaped by the assembly's powers, which affect trade, investment, and labour markets. The lack of full legislative powers can limit the economic potential of the region, as local governments may struggle to implement tailored economic policies without greater autonomy.

Policy and regulation

The UK government's stance on devolution continues to evolve, with implications for policy-making in both Wales and Scotland. Upcoming consultations and potential debates over further powers could reshape the political landscape, particularly if separatist sentiments gain traction among the public.

Numbers that matter

£7bn: The budget transferred to the Welsh Assembly upon its inception in 1999.
63.5%: Percentage of voters in favour of granting the Welsh Assembly direct law-making powers in the 2011 referendum.
35.4%: Voter turnout for the 2011 referendum, indicating moderate public engagement on the issue.
2004: Year the Richard Commission proposed primary law-making powers for Wales, which were ultimately not adopted.
22 July 2004: Date of the significant cabinet meeting discussing further devolution for Wales.

Definitions and jargon buster

Devolution: The transfer of powers from central government to regional or local governments.
Welsh Assembly: The devolved legislature for Wales established in 1999, responsible for various local matters.
Richard Commission: A review conducted in 2004 that recommended further powers for the Welsh Assembly.
Primary law-making powers: The authority to create laws independently, without needing approval from the UK Parliament.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, watch for any reactions from Welsh Labour and other political parties regarding the newly released cabinet documents. There may be calls for revisiting the devolution framework, particularly as public sentiment evolves.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Expect ongoing discussions within the Labour Party about the balance of power between Cardiff and London. Political pressures may lead to renewed proposals for devolution, especially with upcoming elections on the horizon.

Signals to watch

Polling data reflecting public opinion on devolution and independence in Wales and Scotland.
Statements from key political figures regarding the future of devolution.
Legislative proposals in Parliament aimed at addressing the devolution settlement.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed about local political developments and their implications for devolution.
Engage with community discussions surrounding regional governance and independence.
Monitor public sentiment through polls and community forums.

Don’t

Dismiss the significance of devolution debates; they have real implications for governance.
Assume that past decisions on devolution cannot be revisited or changed.
Ignore the potential influence of public opinion on future devolution proposals.

Checklist

Understand the current powers of the Welsh Assembly and how they affect your community.
Research the historical context of devolution in Wales and Scotland.
Follow local news sources for updates on political discussions regarding devolution.
Engage with local representatives to express your views on devolution and governance.
Participate in public consultations or forums discussing regional powers.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

While the cabinet's discussions reflect a consensus at that time, the political landscape is fluid. Public opinions on devolution can shift rapidly, especially in response to significant events or changing leadership within parties. Additionally, the documents released may not capture the full scope of opinions within the government, and the complexities of regional governance mean that any future decisions could face substantial opposition.

Bottom line

The recent release of cabinet documents highlights Tony Blair's belief that devolution had quelled separatist threats in Wales and Scotland. However, given the ongoing debates about independence and the evolving political landscape, it is clear that the issues surrounding devolution are far from resolved. The future of regional powers in the UK remains a significant topic as public sentiments continue to evolve.

FAQs

What did Tony Blair mean by "lanced the boil of separatism"?

Blair suggested that the establishment of the Welsh Assembly and devolution had effectively reduced the desire for independence in Wales and Scotland, mitigating separatist sentiments.

What powers does the Welsh Assembly currently have?

The Welsh Assembly has varying degrees of legislative powers, including the ability to make laws in devolved areas such as health and education, particularly after gaining direct law-making powers in 2011.

What was the Richard Commission's role in Welsh devolution?

The Richard Commission was established to review the powers of the Welsh Assembly and recommended increased law-making powers, though its proposals were largely rejected by Blair's cabinet in 2004.