Who Will Win: A General or a Mathematician in Africa's Power Struggle?

On Sunday, citizens of Guinea and the Central African Republic (CAR) will cast their votes in presidential elections expected to shape the political landscape of both nations. The elections in these two countries are crucial, as they represent differing paths in governance, stability, and international relations. While both incumbents are strong favourites to win outright in the first round, the contexts surrounding their elections highlight significant contrasts in political environments and challenges.

Last updated: 05 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

This Sunday, Guinea and the CAR will proceed with their presidential elections. In Guinea, Gen Mamadi Doumbouya, who led a coup in September 2021, is expected to consolidate power despite facing multiple challengers. Meanwhile, in the CAR, President Faustin-Archange Touadéra is poised to seek another term amid a backdrop of ongoing instability and conflict. While each country presents unique challenges, both elections are being closely monitored by international observers due to their implications for democracy and governance in the region.

Key takeaways

Both Guinea and the CAR are holding presidential elections on Sunday, 8 October 2023.
Incumbents Doumbouya and Touadéra are favoured to win outright in the first round.
The political contexts in both countries differ significantly, with Guinea transitioning from a coup and the CAR emerging from years of instability.
International relations play a crucial role, particularly concerning France's influence and relations with Russia.
Human rights issues and political opposition are critical factors affecting both electoral processes.

Timeline: how we got here

The path to the upcoming elections has been shaped by historical events and political decisions:

**September 2021**: Gen Mamadi Doumbouya leads a coup in Guinea, deposing President Alpha Condé.
**October 2021**: Doumbouya announces intentions for a constitutional review, aiming to restore civilian rule.
**December 2021**: The CAR experiences ongoing violence amid multiple armed groups; international peacekeeping efforts continue.
**2022**: Efforts to disarm rebel groups in the CAR gain momentum as President Touadéra pushes for peace.
**October 2023**: Scheduled elections in Guinea and the CAR, with both incumbents seeking re-election.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The elections scheduled for this weekend are the most immediate focus, with incumbent leaders poised to secure their positions. The political climate in Guinea has been marked by heightened control and suppression of opposition, while the CAR sees a fragile peace process underway, with some rebel groups engaging in disarmament.

What was already established

Both countries have faced significant political turmoil, with Guinea transitioning from military rule back to a civilian government and the CAR struggling with instability from multiple armed factions. The incumbents' ability to maintain power reflects broader regional trends of leaders consolidating authority amid crises.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The elections in Guinea and the CAR may indirectly affect UK consumers through shifts in international relations and trade policies, particularly regarding imports from these nations. Stability in West Africa is crucial for overall regional security, which has implications for global markets.

Businesses and jobs

For companies with interests in Africa, the outcomes of these elections will dictate the stability of the business environment in both countries. Doumbouya's approach may favour foreign investment, while the CAR's recovery efforts could open opportunities for development partnerships.

Policy and regulation

UK foreign policy may adapt in response to the electoral outcomes, particularly concerning diplomatic relations and human rights considerations. The UK's stance on supporting democratic transitions in West Africa will be under scrutiny, especially in light of Guinea's recent political history.

Numbers that matter

**7 years**: The term length for the presidency in both Guinea and the CAR.
**40%**: The percentage of the electorate in Guinea represented by the Peul community, a significant demographic for political outcomes.
**2013-2016**: The period during which CAR experienced severe inter-communal violence, necessitating international peacekeeping interventions.
**8 challengers**: The number of candidates opposing Doumbouya in Guinea, highlighting limited political choice.
**3 countries**: The number of nations (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) that withdrew from ECOWAS following military coups and refusal to reinstate civilian rule, impacting regional stability.

Definitions and jargon buster

CAR: Central African Republic, a landlocked nation facing ongoing conflict and instability.
Ecowas: Economic Community of West African States, a regional bloc promoting economic integration and democratic governance.
UN: United Nations, an international organisation aimed at fostering global peace and cooperation.
Junta: A military or political group that rules a country after seizing power, often following a coup.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

Following the elections, immediate attention will be on the results and the reactions from both domestic and international communities. Any unrest or challenges to the outcomes will likely shape the political discourse in both countries.

Medium term (1–6 months)

In the months following the elections, both leaders will need to address the pressing issues of governance, economic stability, and international relations. Their approaches to these challenges will determine the potential for sustained peace and development.

Signals to watch

Results from the elections and subsequent political stability.
Responses from international bodies like the UN and ECOWAS regarding the legitimacy of the electoral processes.
Reactions from opposition parties and civil society regarding the handling of the elections.

Practical guidance

Do

Monitor election results closely for indications of political stability.
Stay informed about the evolving political landscapes in both Guinea and the CAR.
Consider the implications of these elections for broader regional stability in West Africa.

Don’t

Assume immediate stability will follow the elections without considering the historical context.
Ignore the potential for civil unrest or challenges to the electoral outcomes.
Overlook the importance of international relations and their impact on local governance.

Checklist

Verify the results from credible sources post-election.
Understand the implications of the elected leaders’ policies for regional dynamics.
Follow updates on human rights issues and civil liberties post-election.
Engage with analysis from experts on West African politics.
Keep an eye on foreign investment opportunities in both Guinea and the CAR.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

The political situations in both Guinea and the CAR remain volatile. In Guinea, the exclusion of significant opposition figures raises concerns about the legitimacy of the electoral process. In the CAR, while peace efforts are underway, the risk of renewed violence remains high as various armed groups continue to operate. Additionally, international responses to the elections could shift based on the outcomes and subsequent actions by the elected leaders.

Bottom line

The upcoming elections in Guinea and the CAR represent pivotal moments for both nations, with significant implications for governance, stability, and regional relations. As the incumbents prepare for potentially extended terms, the focus will be on how they navigate ongoing challenges and the expectations of their citizens in the aftermath of the polls.

FAQs

What is the significance of the elections in Guinea and the CAR?

The elections are crucial as they represent the potential for democratic governance and stability in regions with troubled political histories. The outcomes will likely affect international relations and local governance.

Who are the main candidates in these elections?

In Guinea, Gen Mamadi Doumbouya is the main candidate, while in the CAR, President Faustin-Archange Touadéra seeks re-election against challengers like Anicet-Georges Dologuélé.

What should voters expect during the elections?

Voters can expect a highly monitored process with potential challenges, particularly in terms of the political environment and the presence of opposition figures in both countries.