Is Myanmar's Election a Sham in a War-Torn Nation?

The upcoming election in Myanmar is widely regarded as a sham, characterised by the dissolution of major political parties, the imprisonment of prominent leaders, and a civil war that has left much of the population unable to vote. The military government, having seized power nearly five years ago, is conducting a phased ballot in a bid to legitimise its rule amidst ongoing violence and instability. With significant opposition muted and many areas deemed too dangerous for voting, the situation raises serious questions about the future of democracy in the country.

Last updated: 30 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The military junta in Myanmar is pushing ahead with elections that observers and international bodies have condemned as illegitimate. With major political parties banned, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD), and many of their leaders jailed, the election is seen as a mechanism for the junta to consolidate its power rather than a genuine democratic exercise. As the civil war continues, the logistical challenges of conducting a fair election are immense, with estimates suggesting that up to half the country's population may not be able to participate.

Key takeaways

The military government is proceeding with elections viewed as illegitimate by many observers.
Major political parties, including the NLD, have been banned and their leaders imprisoned.
The ongoing civil war presents significant challenges to the election process.

Timeline: how we got here

Myanmar has faced a tumultuous political landscape since the military coup on 1 February 2021. The following timeline highlights key events leading up to the current elections:

1 February 2021: Military coup ousts the democratically elected government.
March 2021: Widespread protests erupt, leading to violent crackdowns by the military.
July 2023: New laws enacted allowing severe penalties for opposing the military government, leading to the imprisonment of several prominent figures.
October 2023: Phased elections announced; voting to occur in 274 out of 330 townships.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The junta has begun preparations for the phased elections, which are expected to take place over the next month. Observers have noted that the authorities may adjust their tactics based on initial voting results, a strategy that raises further concerns about the legitimacy of the electoral process.

What was already established

Since the coup, Myanmar has been plagued by civil unrest and military violence, resulting in thousands of deaths and widespread displacement. Major political parties have faced suppression, and the political environment remains extremely hostile to dissent.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The ongoing conflict has devastating effects on Myanmar’s economy, leading to inflation and reduced access to basic services. For UK businesses involved in trade or investment in Myanmar, the instability poses risks to operations and financial returns.

Businesses and jobs

Many businesses in Myanmar are struggling due to the civil war and the junta's economic policies. The lack of a stable government and the threat of violence have made it difficult for companies to operate effectively, resulting in job losses and increased economic hardship for many citizens.

Policy and regulation

The UK government has condemned the upcoming elections as a sham and is likely to maintain or increase sanctions against the junta. International responses may evolve based on the election's conduct and subsequent developments in Myanmar’s political landscape.

Numbers that matter

200+ individuals charged under new laws for opposing the elections.
330 townships in Myanmar; voting will occur in only 274 of them.
Approximately 50% of the population may be unable to vote due to the civil war.

Definitions and jargon buster

NLD: National League for Democracy, a major political party in Myanmar.
Junta: A military or political group that rules a country after seizing power.
Coup: A sudden, violent, and illegal seizure of power from a government.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

As the phased elections commence, observers will closely monitor the turnout and the junta’s response to any opposition. The potential for civil unrest remains high as various factions react to the electoral process.

Medium term (1–6 months)

The international community will assess the legitimacy of the election results and may respond with increased sanctions or diplomatic efforts aimed at addressing the political crisis in Myanmar. The situation on the ground may continue to evolve as the civil war persists.

Signals to watch

Turnout rates in the regions where voting is conducted.
Reactions from the international community, particularly the UK and EU.
Reports of violence or civil unrest related to the elections.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed about developments in Myanmar through reliable news sources.
Support humanitarian efforts aimed at helping displaced communities.
Engage in discussions about international responses to the situation.

Don’t

Ignore the risks associated with investing or doing business in Myanmar during this instability.
Assume that the election results will reflect the will of the people.
Overlook the plight of those affected by the civil war.

Checklist

Monitor reliable news channels for updates on the elections.
Check for meaningful commentary from international observers.
Stay aware of any changes to UK policy regarding Myanmar.
Consider engaging with organisations providing aid to Myanmar.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

The situation in Myanmar remains fluid, with many variables that could shift rapidly. The legitimacy of the elections is already under question, and any violence or unrest could further destabilise the region. Additionally, the international community's responses could change based on evolving conditions on the ground.

Bottom line

The upcoming elections in Myanmar are unlikely to be a genuine reflection of the people's will, given the suppression of major political parties and ongoing civil conflict. The situation remains precarious, and the potential for increased violence and instability poses serious concerns for the future of democracy in Myanmar.

FAQs

What is the current political situation in Myanmar?

Myanmar is experiencing a military-led government following a coup in February 2021, with ongoing civil conflict and widespread opposition to the junta's rule.

Why are the elections considered a sham?

The elections are viewed as illegitimate due to the banning of major political parties, the imprisonment of their leaders, and the ongoing civil war that restricts voting access.

What impact will the elections have on the civil war?

The elections may exacerbate tensions between the military and opposition groups, potentially leading to increased violence and further entrenchment of the conflict.