Will the UK See Snow This Week After Storm Claudia?

The UK is currently experiencing a dramatic weather shift as mild air clashes with cold air, marking a transition from unseasonably warm temperatures to a colder regime. This battle has been highlighted by recent rain and flooding caused by Storm Claudia, which will soon give way to colder conditions, bringing the possibility of snow across various regions next week.

Last updated: 17 November 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

As of now, the UK is in a state of flux due to the clash of air masses. The warm, tropical maritime air that has dominated since the beginning of the month is being replaced by significantly colder air arriving from the north. This change will lead to a sharp drop in temperatures across England and Wales, with maximum daytime temperatures expected to fall by up to 8 degrees Celsius by Monday. The Met Office and UK Health Security Agency have issued yellow cold weather alerts for central and northern England, highlighting the potential health risks associated with the cold snap.

Key takeaways

The UK is transitioning from mild to cold weather due to a change in air masses.
Temperatures are expected to drop significantly, with warnings issued for frost and cold health risks.
Snow is possible in northern regions next week, particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Timeline: how we got here

The weather changes began to unfold earlier this month, with a series of warm days, particularly on Thursday, when temperatures in Surrey reached 18.7°C (65.6°F). However, by the weekend, Storm Claudia brought heavy rain, leading to flooding and travel disruptions. The timeline of key events includes:

1 November 2023: The UK experiences a notable warm spell.
16 November 2023: Storm Claudia brings rain and flooding.
17 November 2023: Cold air begins to move southward, leading to a significant temperature drop.
20 November 2023: Expected arrival of snow in northern regions.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

New forecasts indicate that a shift in wind patterns will bring colder, arctic maritime air to the UK. This change will likely lead to wintry showers, primarily in the north, including rain, sleet, and snow. The exact details of snow accumulation remain uncertain but are expected to evolve over the coming days.

What was already established

Prior to this week, the UK experienced unusually mild weather with temperatures well above average. The Met Office has also noted a long-term trend of decreasing cold spells in the UK, attributed to climate change, with recent reports indicating a reduction in frost occurrences over the last few decades.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The expected drop in temperatures and potential snow may affect daily life across the UK. Households should prepare for increased heating costs and the possibility of travel disruptions due to icy conditions. Those in the north should particularly brace for adverse weather, while the rest of the country may see milder conditions return by the following weekend.

Businesses and jobs

Businesses, especially those in sectors reliant on outdoor activities, may experience disruptions due to cold weather and potential snow. Retailers may see increased demand for winter clothing and heating products. Transport companies might need to prepare for delays due to adverse weather conditions.

Policy and regulation

The UK government, in coordination with the Met Office and health agencies, is monitoring the situation closely. The cold weather alerts serve to inform the public about the risks associated with low temperatures, particularly for vulnerable populations. Further updates may prompt additional advisories or actions from local authorities.

Numbers that matter

18.7°C: Maximum temperature recorded in Surrey on 16 November 2023.
8°C: Expected drop in maximum daytime temperatures by 20 November 2023.
25%: Reduction in frost occurrences observed by the Met Office since the 1980s.

Definitions and jargon buster

Arctic maritime airmass: Cold air masses originating from the Arctic regions that can lead to wintry weather.
Yellow cold weather alert: A warning issued by the Met Office indicating potential health risks due to cold temperatures.
Tropical maritime airmass: Warm, moist air masses that often bring mild and wet weather to the UK.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, residents should prepare for colder temperatures and the potential for snow. Keeping updated with weather forecasts will be crucial as conditions can change rapidly.

Medium term (1–6 months)

As we move into the winter months, the likelihood of more cold spells remains. Residents should continue to monitor weather conditions and prepare for possible disruptions due to snow and ice.

Signals to watch

Weather forecasts for snowfall in northern regions early next week.
Updates from the Met Office regarding cold weather alerts and health warnings.
Temperature trends as the colder air mass persists.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed about the latest weather updates from the Met Office.
Ensure your home is adequately heated and insulated against the cold.
Prepare for potential travel disruptions and plan accordingly.

Don’t

Ignore weather warnings or alerts issued by authorities.
Underestimate the impact of cold weather on health, especially for vulnerable groups.
Assume that mild conditions will persist; be prepared for sudden changes.

Checklist

Check heating systems and ensure they are functioning properly.
Have warm clothing and blankets accessible.
Monitor local news for updates on weather and travel conditions.
Stock up on essential supplies in case of travel disruptions.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

While forecasts indicate a significant temperature drop and potential snow, the details are still evolving, and there is uncertainty regarding the exact locations and amounts of snowfall. Historical patterns suggest that while cold spells are becoming less frequent, the impact of sudden snow events can still be significant.

Bottom line

In summary, the UK is witnessing a dramatic shift from mild to cold weather as air masses clash. Residents should prepare for a notable drop in temperatures and the possibility of snow in northern regions next week. Staying informed and prepared can help mitigate the impact of these winter conditions.

FAQs

What temperatures can we expect in the coming days?

Temperatures are expected to drop significantly, with maximums reducing by up to 8°C by Monday, bringing colder conditions across the UK.

Where is snow most likely to occur?

Snow is most likely to occur in northern Scotland, Northern Ireland, and parts of northern England, particularly in areas exposed to the cold northerly wind.

How can I prepare for the cold weather?

Prepare by ensuring your home is heated, having warm clothing available, and staying updated with weather forecasts to anticipate any travel disruptions.