Can Italy Overcome the Odds to Avoid Another World Cup Disaster?

Italy's national football team, under the management of Gennaro Gattuso, has seen a resurgence with five consecutive wins, but they face a daunting challenge to qualify for the 2026 World Cup. Currently sitting second in their group, Italy must defeat Norway by a nine-goal margin this Sunday to secure automatic qualification. With a history of missing major tournaments, the stakes are high for the Azzurri as they aim to avoid another heartbreak.

Last updated: 15 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

Italy's footballing future hangs in the balance as they approach a crucial match against Norway this Sunday at the San Siro. After failing to qualify for the last two World Cups, the pressure is mounting on Gattuso and his players. While they have performed admirably under Gattuso, winning all five of his matches in charge, the requirement to win by a massive margin against Norway is an almost insurmountable task. If they cannot achieve this, they will likely enter the play-offs, a situation fraught with tension and disappointment given their recent history of failing to qualify.

Key takeaways

Italy must beat Norway by nine goals to qualify automatically for the 2026 World Cup.
Gattuso has led Italy to five consecutive wins, scoring 18 goals in the process.
Failure to qualify could mean a third consecutive World Cup absence for the Azzurri.

Timeline: how we got here

The path to this critical juncture in Italy's World Cup qualifying campaign has been tumultuous:

June 2023: Italy suffers a 3-0 defeat to Norway in their qualifying opener, leading to the dismissal of manager Luciano Spalletti.
June 2023: Gennaro Gattuso is appointed as the new manager.
September 2023: Italy begins a winning streak, securing victories against Moldova and others, scoring heavily in the process.
October 2023: Italy's upcoming decisive match against Norway looms, with the team needing an extraordinary performance.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The upcoming match against Norway is pivotal, as it will determine whether Italy can qualify directly for the World Cup or face the uncertainty of play-offs. Recent performances under Gattuso have injected hope, but the challenge remains daunting.

What was already established

Italy's struggles in recent World Cup campaigns are well-documented. Missing out on the 2018 and 2022 tournaments has placed immense pressure on the team, and the historical significance of their previous World Cup successes adds to the weight of expectation.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

For UK football fans, Italy's potential failure to qualify could impact viewing habits, especially with the growing interest in international tournaments. A less competitive Italy may affect the allure of the World Cup for UK audiences.

Businesses and jobs

While not directly affecting UK businesses, the footballing landscape is interconnected. A successful World Cup can boost merchandise sales and tourism, highlighting the potential economic ripple effects.

Policy and regulation

Italy's governing football bodies will be under pressure to assess the implications of another World Cup failure, potentially leading to calls for reforms in youth development and coaching standards.

Numbers that matter

18: Goals scored by Italy in Gattuso's first five matches.
3: Points behind Norway, Italy's current standing in Group H.
9: Goals needed to beat Norway for automatic qualification.

Definitions and jargon buster

Azzurri: The nickname for the Italian national football team.
Play-offs: A series of matches to determine which teams qualify for the World Cup after the group stage.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

The immediate focus is on the match against Norway. Italy must prepare thoroughly and strategise to maximise their chances of achieving the required goal margin.

Medium term (1–6 months)

If Italy fails to qualify automatically, they will need to prepare for the play-offs, which will require a different mindset and approach to ensure they secure a spot in the World Cup.

Signals to watch

The outcome of the match against Norway and its implications on qualification.
Performance metrics in subsequent matches, should Italy enter the play-offs.

Practical guidance

Do

Support the team by attending matches and following coverage.
Engage with discussions about team strategies and player performances.

Don’t

Underestimate the significance of player morale heading into critical matches.
Overlook the historical context of Italy's footballing legacy.

Checklist

Monitor Italy's goal difference in upcoming matches.
Stay updated on player fitness and availability.
Follow tactical analyses of Gattuso's management style.
Consider implications of potential play-off matches.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

While Italy has shown promise under Gattuso, the need for a significant goal margin poses a risk of overextending and leaving them vulnerable defensively. Additionally, the pressure of the situation can lead to mistakes on the pitch, affecting their chances significantly. The potential for injuries or player fatigue leading up to the match is also a concern.

Bottom line

Italy's quest for World Cup qualification hinges on an extraordinary performance against Norway. With Gattuso at the helm, the team has shown resilience and attacking prowess, but they must find balance and composure to avoid another failure. The stakes are high, and the legacy of Italian football is on the line as they aim for a return to the world stage.

FAQs

What does Italy need to qualify for the World Cup?

Italy must defeat Norway by a nine-goal margin to qualify automatically for the World Cup.

How has Italy performed under Gattuso?

Under Gattuso, Italy has won all five of their matches, scoring 18 goals in total.

What is the significance of the World Cup for Italy?

The World Cup is a prestigious tournament for Italy, who have won it four times. Missing out again would further tarnish their footballing legacy.