Will Thanksgiving Travel Soar as US Lifts Flight Restrictions?

The US Department of Transportation has lifted its emergency order restricting flights, citing improved staffing levels of air traffic controllers following the end of the government shutdown. The shutdown, which lasted for 43 days, had severely impacted controller attendance, leading to thousands of flight cancellations and delays. With many controllers returning to work just in time for the busy Thanksgiving travel period, the FAA is now focused on ensuring a smooth travel experience for the more than 6 million expected fliers.

Last updated: 12 November 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The emergency order that mandated airlines to cut scheduled flights across the US has been lifted, as air traffic controller staffing levels have improved. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy announced that controllers are back at their posts, allowing normal operations to resume. This is particularly significant as the Thanksgiving holiday approaches, a peak travel time when millions are expected to fly.

Key takeaways

The emergency order restricting flights has been rescinded.
Air traffic controller absences peaked during the 43-day government shutdown.
Thanksgiving travel is projected to be 2% busier than last year, with over 6 million expected flyers.

Timeline: how we got here

The recent developments surrounding air traffic control and flight restrictions can be placed in a broader context of the government shutdown and its effects:

1 October 2023: The government shutdown begins, leading to a rise in air traffic controller absences.
7 November 2023: The FAA issues an emergency order requiring airlines to cut scheduled takeoffs.
8 November 2023: A record high of 81 alerts for grounded or delayed flights is reported due to staffing shortages.
11 November 2023: The emergency order is lifted as controller staffing levels improve.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The recent announcement ending the emergency order indicates that air traffic controllers have returned to work, thereby alleviating the immediate safety concerns that prompted the FAA to limit flight schedules. The Transportation Department has also noted ongoing assessments of airline compliance during the emergency period.

What was already established

Prior to the shutdown's end, air traffic controller absences had reached critical levels, resulting in significant disruptions in flight schedules across the US. The FAA's emergency measures were a direct response to these staffing challenges, which had been exacerbated by existing shortages in the workforce.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

While the immediate situation pertains to the US, UK travellers with plans to visit America during the Thanksgiving holiday should be aware of potential ripple effects. Any delays and cancellations in US flights could impact connecting flights from the UK, leading to adjustments in travel plans.

Businesses and jobs

For airlines operating in the UK that have routes to the US, the lifting of the flight restriction order may signal a return to normal operations. However, the past disruptions highlight the need for robust contingency planning, especially during peak travel seasons.

Policy and regulation

Given the challenges faced during the shutdown, UK policymakers may want to review their own air traffic control systems and workforce management. The situation underscores the importance of having a resilient infrastructure to handle unexpected absences or other crises.

Numbers that matter

6 million: Estimated number of people expected to fly in the US during Thanksgiving 2023.
43 days: Duration of the recent US government shutdown, the longest in history.
10%: Maximum percentage of US domestic flights that were mandated to be cut during the FAA's emergency order.
81: Record number of alerts for grounded or delayed flights due to staffing shortages on 8 November 2023.
2%: Increase in expected Thanksgiving travellers compared to last year.

Definitions and jargon buster

FAA: Federal Aviation Administration, the US government agency responsible for regulating civil aviation.
Air traffic controller: A professional responsible for directing aircraft on the ground and through controlled airspace.
Government shutdown: A situation where non-essential government services are halted due to a lack of approved funding.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

As the Thanksgiving holiday approaches, airlines will be focused on managing high passenger volumes and ensuring smooth operations. Travellers should monitor their flights for any updates.

Medium term (1–6 months)

In the coming months, the FAA will likely implement measures to address the controller staffing shortage more permanently. This could involve recruitment drives or potential policy changes to improve working conditions.

Signals to watch

Reports on air traffic controller hiring and retention rates.
Future announcements from the FAA regarding policy changes or compliance issues with airlines.
Trends in flight cancellations and delays as travel seasons evolve.

Practical guidance

Do

Check your flight status regularly, especially during busy travel periods.
Arrive at the airport early to allow for any unforeseen delays.
Stay informed about potential changes in air traffic policies that may affect travel plans.

Don’t

Assume that all flights will operate as scheduled without any issues.
Neglect to plan for alternative routes or travel arrangements if your flight is delayed or cancelled.
Overlook the importance of having travel insurance for unexpected disruptions.

Checklist

Have your flight details readily available and confirm your itinerary.
Pack essentials in your carry-on in case of delays.
Download your airline's app for real-time updates and notifications.
Review your travel insurance policy to ensure coverage for cancellations.
Set up alerts for your flight status through your airline or travel app.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

The situation surrounding air traffic control and flight operations remains fluid. While the emergency order has been lifted, ongoing assessments by the FAA regarding airline compliance could lead to further regulatory changes. Additionally, the long-term effects of controller absences and the potential for future government shutdowns may still pose risks to air travel stability.

Bottom line

The lifting of the emergency order signals a return to normalcy for US air travel just ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. However, travellers should remain vigilant and prepared for any eventualities as the air traffic system stabilises. Continuous monitoring of the situation will be essential for a smooth travel experience.

FAQs

What is the reason for the lifting of the emergency order?

The emergency order was lifted due to improved staffing levels of air traffic controllers following the end of the government shutdown, allowing normal operations to resume.

How many people are expected to fly during Thanksgiving?

Over 6 million people are expected to fly in the US during the Thanksgiving holiday, which is about 2% more than last year.

What impact did the government shutdown have on air travel?

The government shutdown led to significant absenteeism among air traffic controllers, resulting in thousands of flight cancellations and delays across the US.