Why Did New International Student Enrolment at US Universities Drop by 17%?

The recent 17% drop in new international student enrolment at US universities this autumn highlights significant challenges facing foreign students, primarily stemming from stricter visa policies under the Trump administration. The decline, as reported by the Institute of International Education, raises concerns about the future of international education in the US, particularly in light of previous forecasts suggesting even steeper decreases due to administrative hurdles.

Last updated: 25 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

This autumn, US universities are grappling with a notable reduction in first-time enrolments from international students. The 17% drop compared to previous years has raised alarms among educational leaders. While there is a modest overall decline of 1% when accounting for all international students, the immediate implications are serious, as these students contribute significantly to the US economy and higher education funding.

Key takeaways

17% drop in new international student enrolment this autumn.
Visa application challenges cited as a primary reason for the decline.
International students contribute £41bn to the US economy annually.

Timeline: how we got here

The decrease in international student enrolment has been influenced by various factors over recent years:

2016: Rhetoric around immigration begins to shift under the Trump administration.
2018: New visa policies introduced, leading to increased scrutiny of applications.
January 2020: The administration pauses scheduling visa appointments for international students.
June 2020: Resumption of visa processing with new guidelines for social media scrutiny.
October 2023: Latest survey reveals a 17% drop in new international student enrolments.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The latest findings from the Institute of International Education highlight a significant 17% drop in first-time international student enrolments. This trend is alarming, especially as it contrasts with earlier forecasts predicting a potential 30%-40% decline. Factors contributing to this drop include stricter visa policies, increased delays, and heightened scrutiny of applications.

What was already established

Previously established concerns included a general decline in international student enrolment due to stricter immigration policies and growing apprehensions among prospective students about the US being an unwelcoming environment. The economic contribution of these students to the US, estimated at £41bn annually, has already been recognised as vital to the higher education sector.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

For UK students and families considering studying in the US, the declining enrolment rates might make universities more competitive in attracting international students. This could lead to more scholarships or flexible admissions policies aimed at counteracting the perceived barriers. However, potential UK students should remain aware of the challenges posed by US visa policies.

Businesses and jobs

The decline in international student enrolments could adversely affect universities financially, leading to potential job losses or decreased funding for programmes that rely heavily on foreign tuition fees. Additionally, sectors connected to international education, such as housing and local businesses, may also feel the pinch.

Policy and regulation

The UK may need to monitor how these changes in the US affect international student dynamics globally. As US institutions face tighter regulations, UK universities might find themselves in a position to attract more students who are deterred by the complexities of US visas and the current political climate.

Numbers that matter

6%: The percentage of total US university enrolment represented by international students.
£41bn: The economic contribution of international students to the US economy in 2024.
39%: Increase in deferrals among international students compared to the previous year.

Definitions and jargon buster

International students: Students enrolled in an educational institution outside their home country.
Visa application: The process through which a foreign national applies for permission to enter, stay, or study in a country.
Deferral: The act of postponing the start of an academic programme to a later date.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

Prospective international students should closely monitor changes in visa application processes and university admissions policies. Keeping in communication with institutions can provide clarity on available options and potential shifts in enrolment numbers.

Medium term (1–6 months)

As the academic year progresses, universities may implement new strategies to attract international students, such as increased marketing efforts, scholarships, and enhanced support services. Observers should watch for these developments as they unfold.

Signals to watch

Updates on US visa policies and processing times.
Changes in enrolment statistics from US universities.
Statements from educational organisations regarding international student trends.

Practical guidance

Do

Research potential universities thoroughly, including their international recruitment strategies.
Stay informed about visa regulations and application processes.

Don’t

Don’t hesitate to ask universities for clarification on their policies regarding international students.
Don’t ignore changes in the political climate that may affect student experiences in the US.

Checklist

Verify application deadlines for universities of interest.
Check the latest visa application guidelines and requirements.
Consider alternative countries for study in case of ongoing challenges.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

The future of international student enrolments in the US remains uncertain. Factors such as changing immigration policies, global political dynamics, and the perception of the US as an educational destination will continue to influence enrolment trends. Prospective students should remain vigilant regarding these developments and consider seeking advice from educational consultants to navigate potential challenges.

Bottom line

The significant decline in new international student enrolments at US universities signals a worrying trend for the future of international education. As institutions adapt to these challenges, it is crucial for prospective students to stay informed and consider their options carefully in light of evolving visa regulations and economic factors.

FAQs

What is causing the decline in international student enrolments in the US?

The decline in international student enrolments in the US is primarily attributed to stricter visa policies, application delays, and concerns about feeling unwelcome in the country.

How do international students contribute to the US economy?

International students contribute approximately £41bn annually to the US economy, primarily through tuition fees and living expenses.

What steps can prospective international students take amid these changes?

Prospective international students should research universities thoroughly, stay updated on visa requirements, and consider alternative study destinations if necessary.