Is the US Arms Sale to India a Sign of Easing Trade Tensions?

The recent approval of two arms sales from the US to India, totalling $92.8 million (£71 million), marks a significant step in strengthening military ties between the two nations. The sales include Javelin anti-tank missiles and Excalibur precision artillery projectiles, underscoring India's efforts to diversify its arms procurement away from Russia.

Last updated: 26 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The US State Department has greenlit arms sales to India comprising Javelin anti-tank missiles and Excalibur artillery projectiles. This decision aligns with India's ongoing strategy to reduce its reliance on Russian military supplies, which have historically constituted the bulk of its defence acquisitions. The current sales are part of a broader effort to bolster defence cooperation, a commitment made during a high-profile meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and former President Donald Trump in Washington nine months ago.

Key takeaways

• The US has approved arms sales to India worth $92.8 million, including Javelin missiles and Excalibur projectiles.
• This marks a shift as India diversifies its arms suppliers, moving away from Russia.
• India's arms trade with the US has surged to $20 billion, making it the third-largest supplier for India.

Timeline: how we got here

The following milestones highlight the evolution of US-India defence cooperation:

• October 2022: Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Donald Trump meet, pledging to enhance defence ties.
• January 2023: Signing of a framework agreement to expand defence cooperation over the next decade.
• October 2023: US State Department approves arms sales worth $92.8 million to India.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The US State Department's Defence Security Co-operation Agency (DSCA) has confirmed the specifics of the arms sales, detailing the components of each package, including Javelin missiles and Excalibur projectiles. The approval indicates a significant shift in India's procurement strategy, furthering its military capabilities to meet evolving threats.

What was already established

India has been moving towards diversifying its arms suppliers, reducing its dependency on Russia, which has historically accounted for over half of its defence imports. Recent years have seen a notable increase in defence procurement from the US, reflecting a strategic partnership aimed at enhancing regional security in the Indo-Pacific and South Asia.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

For UK consumers, the arms sales may not have a direct impact; however, they reflect a broader trend of shifting geopolitical alliances and defence spending that could indirectly affect global security dynamics and trade relationships.

Businesses and jobs

UK businesses involved in defence and security sectors may observe changes in market opportunities as India continues to diversify its arms suppliers. A growing US-India defence partnership may open avenues for UK firms to collaborate with Indian counterparts, particularly in technology and logistics.

Policy and regulation

UK policymakers may need to monitor these developments closely, especially in light of the UK's own defence procurement strategies and relationships with both India and the US. Future consultations and trade agreements could be influenced by how India strengthens its military capabilities with US support.

Numbers that matter

• £71 million: The value of the recent arms sales from the US to India.
• 20 billion: The total value of India's defence trade with the US, highlighting a significant increase from near zero.
• 34%: The decrease in Russia's share of India's arms supplies from 62% in 2017 to 34% in 2023.

Definitions and jargon buster

• DSCA: Defence Security Co-operation Agency, responsible for administering foreign military sales.
• FGM-148 Javelin: A man-portable fire-and-forget anti-tank missile system.
• M982A1 Excalibur: A precision-guided artillery projectile designed for use with howitzers.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

Immediate actions will likely include the logistical planning for the delivery of the weapons systems and training for Indian forces on their operation. The Indian military will begin integrating these systems into their existing capabilities.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Over the next six months, observers can expect to see the impact of these new weapons on India's military exercises and readiness. Potential updates on further arms agreements or joint exercises between India and the US may also emerge.

Signals to watch

• Further announcements regarding arms deals or military exercises between the US and India.
• Changes in India's defence procurement strategy and relationships with other suppliers.
• Responses from Russia regarding India's shift away from Russian military supplies.

Practical guidance

Do

• Stay informed about the evolving geopolitical landscape in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific.
• Monitor developments in UK defence policies that may respond to India's shifting alliances.

Don’t

• Underestimate the significance of arms sales in shaping international relations.
• Ignore the potential effects on global security dynamics stemming from these transactions.

Checklist

• Check for updates on US arms sales and their implications for UK defence policy.
• Review the impact of these sales on global military balance, particularly in South Asia.
• Understand the strategic importance of India's military diversification.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

While the arms sales present opportunities for strengthening the US-India relationship, there are uncertainties regarding how these changes will affect regional security. Potential backlash from Russia could complicate India's relationships, and ongoing tensions may affect future arms negotiations. Additionally, the evolving geopolitical landscape may introduce new risks that are difficult to predict.

Bottom line

The approval of US arms sales to India signals a pivotal shift in defence relationships, reflecting India's intent to reduce reliance on Russian military supplies and enhance its own capabilities. These developments could reshape power dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region and influence UK interests as well.

FAQs

What are the main components of the US arms sales to India?

The arms sales include Javelin anti-tank missiles and Excalibur precision artillery projectiles, aimed at improving India’s military capabilities.

Why is India diversifying its arms suppliers?

India is looking to reduce its historical dependence on Russia for military supplies, which currently accounts for a decreasing share of its arms imports.

How might these arms sales impact global security?

The sales could influence the strategic balance in the Indo-Pacific region, encouraging other nations to reassess their military alliances and procurement strategies.