Is Israel Relying on Trump for Regime Change in Iran?

The current geopolitical landscape reveals a complex interplay between Israel and the United States regarding military actions against Iran. Israel's leaders, particularly Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have maintained a conspicuously low profile amid escalating speculation about a potential U.S. military build-up in the Middle East. This silence seems strategic, highlighting Israel's reliance on American military power while simultaneously reflecting its own security interests concerning Iran.

Last updated: 10 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

As tensions mount over the potential for U.S. military action against Iran, Israel's leadership has notably refrained from making public statements. Analysts suggest that this reticence allows the U.S. to take the lead in any military engagement, a move that could bolster Israel’s strategic positioning while minimising its own direct involvement. Israeli officials are reportedly engaged in behind-the-scenes discussions with U.S. intelligence to assess possible military targets in Iran, indicating that while public commentary is scarce, private consultations are ongoing.

Key takeaways

Israel's leaders are strategically silent about U.S. military plans against Iran.
Netanyahu's government views U.S. military action as a potential opportunity for regime change in Iran.
Recent discussions between Israeli and U.S. intelligence indicate ongoing cooperation regarding Iran.
Public opinion in Israel supports military action against Iran, reflecting widespread security concerns.
Analysts warn of the risks associated with regime change, including potential instability in the region.

Timeline: how we got here

The situation surrounding U.S.-Iran relations has evolved significantly over the years, particularly under the Trump administration:

May 2018: The U.S. withdraws from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), reinstating sanctions.
January 2020: U.S. drone strike kills Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, escalating tensions.
June 2022: Israel launches airstrikes against Iranian-linked targets in Syria, asserting regional security.
June 2023: A 12-day conflict sees Israel and the U.S. attack Iranian nuclear sites, provoking retaliatory strikes from Iran.
October 2023: U.S. military build-up in the Gulf raises speculation about potential actions against Iran.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Recent intelligence meetings between Israel and U.S. officials suggest that discussions are actively taking place regarding military targets in Iran. This reflects a shift towards a more coordinated approach to tackling perceived threats from Iran, particularly concerning its nuclear ambitions and missile capabilities.

What was already established

Netanyahu has long viewed Iran as a significant threat. Despite public silence, there is an understanding that ongoing military discussions between Israel and the U.S. are crucial. The Israeli government has consistently advocated for a firm stance against Iran's military capabilities, believing that any regime change could enhance Israel's security landscape.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

In the UK, heightened tensions in the Middle East can lead to increased oil prices, impacting household energy bills and transport costs. Additionally, the geopolitical climate may affect UK citizens travelling to the region, necessitating a review of travel advisories.

Businesses and jobs

UK businesses, particularly those in the energy sector, may face supply chain disruptions due to instability in the Middle East. An escalation of military conflict could lead to higher operational costs, which may ultimately impact UK jobs and economic growth.

Policy and regulation

UK policymakers will need to monitor developments closely, as military actions in the Middle East could lead to changes in foreign policy and defence strategies. There may be discussions around sanctions, arms sales, and diplomatic efforts in the region.

Numbers that matter

28: The number of casualties from Iranian missile strikes during the 12-day conflict last year.
25,000: Estimated number of missiles and rockets held by Hezbollah, posing a direct threat to Israel.
70%: Percentage of Israeli Jewish residents who support military action against Iran, reflecting widespread concern over national security.
1: The key question facing Israel: can regime change in Iran lead to a more stable Middle East?
12: The number of days of conflict between Israel and Iran last year, highlighting the volatility of the situation.

Definitions and jargon buster

JCPOA: Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal.
Proxy: A third party that acts on behalf of another party, often used to describe groups that Iran supports militarily in the region.
Ballistic missiles: Missiles that follow a sub-orbital trajectory to deliver a payload to a predetermined target.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

Expect continued military posturing from the U.S. and Israel as preparations for potential strikes against Iran intensify. Monitor for announcements regarding military deployments and intelligence-sharing agreements.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Watch for developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations, particularly concerning nuclear enrichment. A breakthrough in talks could ease tensions, while a failure to reach an agreement may prompt military action.

Signals to watch

U.S. military deployments in the Gulf region.
Statements from Israeli and U.S. officials regarding Iran's nuclear programme.
Public opinion shifts in Israel regarding military action against Iran.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed about regional developments and their potential impact on global markets.
Consider the implications of military action on international relations and security.
Engage in discussions about the importance of diplomacy in resolving conflicts.

Don’t

Assume that a military solution is the best or only option for dealing with Iran.
Ignore the potential for unintended consequences resulting from military actions.
Overlook the voices of Iranian citizens who may be affected by outside interventions.

Checklist

Review news regularly for updates on military actions and diplomatic efforts.
Understand the positions of key players in the region, including Iran, Israel, and the U.S.
Evaluate personal or business implications of rising tensions in the Middle East.
Consider supporting organisations advocating for peaceful resolutions to conflicts.
Follow developments in UK policy regarding the Middle East situation.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

The potential for military action against Iran carries significant risks, including the possibility of retaliation against Israel and U.S. interests in the region. The lack of a clear successor should the Iranian regime fall poses a further complication, as instability could lead to chaos and civil strife. Analysts warn that military strikes alone are unlikely to result in regime change without a comprehensive strategy in place.

Bottom line

As Israel navigates the complex dynamics of its relationship with the U.S. and the looming threat from Iran, the silence of its leaders speaks volumes. It indicates a cautious approach that balances the need for security with the risks of military engagement. The coming weeks and months will be critical in determining whether diplomacy can prevail or if military action becomes a reality in the pursuit of regime change.

FAQs

Why is Israel silent on U.S. military actions against Iran?

Israel's leadership is strategically silent to allow the U.S. to lead military actions, believing it enhances their own security interests.

What is the public opinion in Israel regarding military action against Iran?

Polls indicate that a strong majority of Israeli Jewish residents support military action against Iran due to ongoing security concerns.

What are the risks of regime change in Iran for Israel?

Regime change could lead to instability and chaos in Iran, potentially resulting in a power vacuum and increased regional tensions.