Why Are Three West African Juntas Turning to Russia While the US Seeks Engagement?

The US has announced a significant policy shift regarding its relations with Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, as these West African nations grapple with Islamist insurgents and have turned towards Russia for military support. This new strategy, articulated by the US State Department, focuses on respect for sovereignty and cooperation on security and economic interests, moving away from earlier concerns about democracy and human rights. The shift signals a move towards a more pragmatic engagement with military governments in the region, reflecting a broader change in US foreign policy priorities.

Last updated: 12 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The United States is actively recalibrating its approach to Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, three countries that have experienced recent military coups and a shift away from traditional Western alliances, particularly with France. Nick Checker, the head of the US Bureau of African Affairs, is set to visit Bamako to underscore this new direction, prioritising security cooperation over previous diplomatic concerns. This marks an important pivot in US policy, particularly as it relates to these nations' struggle against rising jihadist threats.

Key takeaways

• The US is redefining its relationship with Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, focusing on sovereignty and security.
• Previous concerns about democracy and human rights are sidelined in favour of tactical cooperation against jihadist groups.
• The shift aligns with a broader trend of these nations seeking military partnerships with Russia.

Timeline: how we got here

Understanding the recent developments requires looking back at key events in the region:

• 2020: A series of coups in Mali lead to the establishment of military governments.
• 2021: Burkina Faso and Niger experience military takeovers, with leaders rejecting former colonial ties.
• 2023: US halts military cooperation with these nations due to concerns over governance.
• October 2023: Nick Checker’s visit signals a new US engagement strategy in West Africa.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The announcement of Checker's visit to Mali represents a formal acknowledgement of the sovereignty of its military government and a willingness to cooperate on security matters, explicitly moving past previous missteps in US policy.

What was already established

Previously, the US had halted military cooperation following the coups due to concerns regarding the democratic governance of these nations. The Biden administration's approach had emphasised human rights and governance, which is now being deprioritised.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

While the direct impact on UK consumers may be limited, the geopolitical stability in West Africa is essential for global markets, particularly concerning mineral resources such as gold and lithium, which are critical for various industries, including technology and energy.

Businesses and jobs

UK businesses involved in mining and resource extraction could see both opportunities and risks depending on the evolving security landscape in these regions. A stable West Africa could facilitate smoother operations, while instability could disrupt supply chains.

Policy and regulation

The UK government may need to reassess its foreign policy and trade strategies concerning West Africa, particularly as US and Russian influences grow in the region. This could lead to new partnerships or adjustments in existing agreements.

Numbers that matter

• 50%: Estimated proportion of global terrorism deaths attributed to the Sahel region.
• 1,000: Approximate number of Russian security contractors currently deployed in Mali.
• 800: Number of US troops expelled from Niger following the military coup.
• 0: The number of planned elections announced by the military governments of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger since their coups.

Definitions and jargon buster

• Africom: The United States Africa Command, responsible for military operations and relations on the African continent.
• ISGS: Islamic State in the Greater Sahara, a regional terrorist group operating across the Sahel.
• Ecowas: Economic Community of West African States, a regional political and economic union.
• Alliance of Sahel States (AES): A new confederation formed by Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger following their withdrawal from Ecowas.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

Watch for developments from Nick Checker’s visit and any subsequent agreements or military support announcements. Increased US intelligence sharing may occur soon.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Monitor the security situation in the Sahel, particularly the effectiveness of joint operations against jihadist groups and the potential for regional cooperation among Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.

Signals to watch

• Statements from US officials regarding military support and cooperation.
• Any changes in the security situation in the Sahel, including attacks by jihadist groups.
• Responses from the UK and other Western nations regarding the evolving geopolitical landscape.

Practical guidance

Do

• Stay informed about geopolitical developments in West Africa, particularly regarding security and resource management.
• Consider the implications of regional stability on global markets and supply chains.

Don’t

• Ignore the potential consequences of shifts in US policy for UK interests in the region.
• Assume that military solutions alone will resolve the complex issues facing West Africa.

Checklist

• Review current investments in West Africa for potential risks and opportunities.
• Engage with expert analyses on security trends in the Sahel.
• Follow updates from international organisations regarding humanitarian conditions in the region.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

While the US's new approach may provide immediate tactical advantages against jihadist groups, it raises concerns about the long-term stability and governance in West Africa. The lack of focus on democracy and human rights could lead to further instability and exacerbate tensions in the region. Additionally, the effectiveness of US intelligence and military support in countering unprecedented jihadist threats remains uncertain, particularly given the historical challenges faced by military interventions in the area.

Bottom line

The US's shift in policy towards Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger reflects a pragmatic approach to tackling growing security threats in West Africa, moving away from previous commitments to human rights and democratic governance. While this may yield short-term benefits in combating jihadist insurgents, the long-term implications for regional stability and governance remain to be seen.

FAQs

What is the significance of the US's policy shift towards West Africa?

The US's policy shift signifies a focus on security cooperation with military governments in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, prioritising counter-terrorism efforts over democratic governance and human rights concerns.

How does this impact UK interests in West Africa?

The shift can affect UK business operations and diplomatic strategies, as the evolving geopolitical landscape may necessitate new partnerships and reassessments of existing agreements.

What role does Russia play in these countries?

Russia has become a significant military partner for Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, with security contractors deployed to support their efforts against jihadist groups, complicating the security dynamics in the region.