Did a Tough-on-Crime Stance Secure Victory in Costa Rica's Presidential Election?

Laura Fernández has emerged victorious in the presidential election in Costa Rica, winning over 48% of the votes with more than 88% counted, thus avoiding a run-off. Her campaign, which aligns closely with outgoing President Rodrigo Chaves' tough-on-crime policies, reflects voter concerns about rising drug-related violence. Fernández is set to be inaugurated on 8 May and aims to reinforce existing security measures while promising a government founded on dialogue and respect for the rule of law.

Last updated: 08 April 2024 (BST)

What’s happening now

Laura Fernández, the candidate from the governing conservative Sovereign People's Party, has won the Costa Rican presidential election, securing a significant lead with over 48% of the votes. Her victory comes amid rising concerns about crime, particularly drug-related violence, which has surged in recent years due to the influence of transnational criminal gangs in the region. Fernández's election is significant as it continues the administration of President Rodrigo Chaves, who endorsed her as his successor, and indicates a continuation of his firm stance on crime and security issues.

Key takeaways

Laura Fernández won the presidential election with over 48% of the votes, avoiding a run-off.
Her campaign focused on a tough-on-crime agenda amid rising drug-related violence.
Fernández is expected to implement policies similar to those of El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele.

Timeline: how we got here

The path to Laura Fernández's election can be traced through several key events:

8 May 2024: Fernández will be sworn in as President of Costa Rica.
April 2024: Fernández wins the presidential election with over 48% of the votes.
2022: Rodrigo Chaves assumes the presidency and begins implementing tough-on-crime policies.
2023: Rising concerns over drug-related violence lead to public support for stronger security measures.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Fernández's victory marks a continuation of President Chaves' policies, with her pledges to declare states of emergency in crime-affected areas and to finish building high-security facilities. She has also suggested possible cabinet appointments for Chaves, highlighting continuity in governance.

What was already established

President Rodrigo Chaves' administration has faced challenges due to rising crime rates and opposition in parliament. His policies have included a strong focus on security, influenced by the growing presence of criminal gangs in Costa Rica, a nation traditionally known for its safety and stability.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

For UK citizens, the implications of Fernández's election may not be immediate but could affect travel safety and drug-related crime perceptions in Central America. Increased security measures might lead to greater stability in tourist areas, which is essential for British travellers.

Businesses and jobs

Businesses operating in Costa Rica or those considering investment may view Fernández's strong stance on crime as a positive development, potentially leading to a more stable environment for operations. However, concerns about civil rights and the implications of emergency measures could affect perceptions of Costa Rica as an attractive business hub.

Policy and regulation

Fernández's administration is likely to continue the close ties with the United States, particularly concerning immigration and drug trafficking policies. The "safe third-country migrant agreement" is expected to remain in place, impacting Costa Rica's immigration landscape and its role as a transit country.

Numbers that matter

48%: The percentage of votes won by Laura Fernández, exceeding the 40% needed for an outright victory.
30: The number of seats won by Fernández's party in parliament out of 57, giving her a solid legislative backing.
8 May 2024: The date Fernández is set to be inaugurated as President of Costa Rica.

Definitions and jargon buster

Safe third-country migrant agreement: A policy allowing the US to deport migrants from unsafe countries to a designated third country considered safe.
Transnational criminal gangs: Organised crime groups that operate across national borders, often involved in drug trafficking and violence.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate aftermath of her election, Fernández will likely focus on forming her cabinet and outlining her administration's initial policies. Key appointments and strategic decisions regarding crime and security will be closely monitored.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Fernández's government will need to address the root causes of rising crime rates while maintaining public support for her policies. Her approach will be scrutinised by both supporters and critics, particularly concerning human rights and civil liberties.

Signals to watch

Implementation of security measures in crime-affected areas.
Public response to changes in civil rights during any declared states of emergency.
Legislative progress on Fernández's proposed policies in parliament.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed about Costa Rica's evolving political landscape, especially regarding security policies.
Consider the implications of new policies for travel safety and business opportunities in the region.

Don’t

Assume that crime rates will drop immediately as a result of new policies; changes may take time.
Dismiss concerns about civil rights and liberties under emergency measures.

Checklist

Review travel advisories for Costa Rica if planning a visit.
Monitor news for updates on Fernández's policy implementations.
Consider how potential changes in governance may affect business operations in Costa Rica.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

While Fernández's election promises a continuation of tough anti-crime policies, there are risks associated with potential overreach in her administration's approach. Critics have raised concerns about civil liberties, especially if emergency measures are enacted. The effectiveness of her policies will depend on a complex interplay of public support, legislative cooperation, and the response of criminal organisations.

Bottom line

Laura Fernández's election as Costa Rica's president signals a commitment to maintaining a tough stance on crime while promoting dialogue and respect for the rule of law. The outcomes of her policies will be critical in shaping the country's future, particularly in addressing the challenges posed by rising violence and criminal activity. As developments unfold, stakeholders should remain vigilant regarding the balance between security and civil rights in Costa Rica.

FAQs

Who is Laura Fernández?

Laura Fernández is the newly elected president of Costa Rica, winning the election with over 48% of the votes. She is seen as the successor to outgoing President Rodrigo Chaves, with whom she shares a similar tough-on-crime approach.

What are Fernández's main policies?

Fernández has promised to continue and deepen existing tough-on-crime policies, including declaring states of emergency in gang-affected areas and completing the construction of high-security jails.

What challenges does she face?

Fernández will need to navigate rising crime rates, potential pushback from opposition lawmakers, and concerns about civil rights under her administration’s policies, particularly if emergency measures are implemented.