Can Thailand's Progressives Overcome Their First Hurdle After Winning the Vote?

The rise of Suttasitt "Macky" Pottasak and the People's Party signifies a pivotal moment in Thailand's political landscape. Young, idealistic, and determined, Macky has captured the attention of voters with a fresh approach to politics, utilising social media and popular culture to engage the electorate. As the country prepares for the upcoming election, the People's Party is polling ahead of traditional rivals, reflecting a growing desire for reform among the Thai populace.

Last updated: 06 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

As Thailand approaches its next election on Sunday, the People's Party, led by Macky Pottasak, is energising a disillusioned electorate with promises of significant political reform. Polls indicate that the party is gaining substantial support, particularly among younger voters who are eager for change. However, the political environment remains fraught with challenges, including the potential for opposition from conservative forces intent on maintaining the status quo.

Key takeaways

Suttasitt "Macky" Pottasak is a leading candidate for Thailand's People's Party, advocating for major reforms.
The People's Party is polling ahead of its rivals as the election approaches.
Previous elections have shown that winning is not enough, with established powers often blocking reformist parties.
The party aims to amend Thailand's military-drafted constitution to reduce the influence of unelected bodies.
Younger voters are increasingly supporting parties that promise to address long-standing economic and social issues.

Timeline: how we got here

The journey to the current political landscape in Thailand has been marked by significant events:

2017: The Future Forward Party, now rebranded as the People's Party, is founded.
2019: The party performs unexpectedly well in the elections but faces severe backlash from conservative institutions.
2020: The Future Forward Party is dissolved by the constitutional court, sparking large-scale protests.
2023: The People's Party aims to reclaim power in a new election, with polls suggesting strong public support.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The People's Party has gained traction in opinion polls ahead of the election, indicating a shift in voter sentiment towards reformist candidates. The party's innovative approach, including the use of popular cultural references like Luffy from One Piece, resonates with younger voters who feel disenfranchised by traditional politics.

What was already established

Historically, Thailand's political landscape has been dominated by conservative forces resistant to change. Previous reformist attempts, such as those by the Move Forward party, have been stymied by powerful institutions including the military and the constitutional court, which have previously dissolved parties and barred leaders from politics.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

For UK residents with ties to Thailand, the outcome of this election could have implications for international relations and economic partnerships. A shift towards more progressive governance may lead to changes in trade agreements and investment strategies, particularly as Thailand navigates its economic challenges.

Businesses and jobs

The political stability resulting from this election will be crucial for businesses operating in or with Thailand. A government prioritising reform could create a more conducive environment for international business, whereas continued instability may deter investment and hinder economic growth.

Policy and regulation

Changes in Thai governance could also influence regulatory environments, potentially aligning more closely with international standards on governance and human rights. This could foster better relations with the UK, particularly in areas such as trade and investment.

Numbers that matter

2%: Current GDP growth rate of Thailand, significantly lower than neighbouring countries.
10%: Decline in the birth rate last year, marking the highest rate in the world.
44: Number of leading figures from the People's Party facing legal challenges, which could impact their political future.
15: Parliamentary candidates from the People's Party potentially facing disqualification.
1: The singular aim to amend the military-drafted constitution, a referendum question aligned with the upcoming election.

Definitions and jargon buster

Lese majeste: A law in Thailand that prohibits defaming, insulting, or threatening the monarchy.
Constitutional court: A court that interprets the constitution and can dissolve political parties in Thailand.
GDP: Gross Domestic Product, a measure of economic activity and growth.
Future Forward Party: The original name of the People's Party, which was dissolved in 2020.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

As the election approaches, the focus will be on voter turnout and the immediate responses from opposing parties to the People's Party's rising popularity. Observers will be keen to see if any legal challenges emerge that could impact the election results.

Medium term (1–6 months)

After the election, regardless of the results, the potential for legal action against the People's Party could shape the political landscape. If they secure a strong position, they may push for constitutional amendments, but resistance from conservative factions is expected.

Signals to watch

Polling results in the final days leading up to the election.
Any legal rulings regarding candidates from the People's Party.
Responses from opposing parties, particularly concerning policy proposals and campaign strategies.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed about the election process and potential changes in governance.
Engage with community discussions around the political implications of the election.
Support initiatives that encourage democratic participation and engagement.

Don’t

Ignore the historical context of Thailand's political struggles; understanding this is crucial for future developments.
Dismiss the potential impact of the youth vote on the election outcome.
Assume that winning the election guarantees effective governance without addressing institutional barriers.

Checklist

Review the platforms of the People's Party and their main rivals.
Understand the implications of lese majeste laws on political engagement.
Consider how the election results may affect economic opportunities in Thailand.
Keep track of legal challenges that may arise post-election.
Monitor international reactions to the election outcomes and subsequent governance.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

Despite the enthusiasm surrounding the People's Party, significant risks remain. The potential for legal action against candidates could undermine their chances even if they perform well in the elections. Additionally, entrenched conservative forces may attempt to obstruct reform efforts, continuing the cycle of political instability that has characterised Thailand's recent history.

Bottom line

The upcoming election presents a critical juncture for Thailand, with the People's Party representing a beacon of hope for those yearning for change. However, the path to governance is fraught with challenges, making it imperative for voters and observers alike to remain vigilant about the political developments to come.

FAQs

Who is Suttasitt "Macky" Pottasak?

Suttasitt "Macky" Pottasak is a young politician and candidate for the People's Party in Thailand, known for his engaging social media presence and innovative campaign strategies.

What is the People's Party's main agenda?

The People's Party aims to amend the constitution, reduce military influence, and address economic challenges facing the country, particularly for young people in rural areas.

Why is the election considered significant?

This election is seen as a crucial opportunity for reform in Thailand, as the People's Party gains traction among voters looking for change after years of political stagnation.