Can the US Really Help Iran? Insights from Iranians at Home and Abroad

The question of US intervention in Iran is deeply personal for many Iranians and Iranian-Americans, as demonstrated by the experiences of Mojdeh and her husband, who found themselves unwittingly caught in protests during a recent visit to Tehran. Their story encapsulates the complex feelings surrounding the protests that erupted due to economic hardship and a desire for political change, raising questions about foreign involvement and its potential consequences for the Iranian people.

Last updated: 25 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

In recent weeks, Iran has witnessed significant unrest as protests against the government have escalated, driven by economic crisis and public discontent. The situation remains volatile, with reports of security forces responding violently to demonstrators. The ongoing internet blackout complicates the verification of information, but organisations like the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) and Iran Human Rights (IHRNGO) report alarming death tolls and mass arrests. The debate over US intervention is intensifying, with opinions split among Iranians at home and abroad regarding the potential outcomes and implications of such actions.

Key takeaways

• Protests in Iran have surged due to economic hardship and calls for regime change.
• The true impact of the protests is obscured by an internet blackout, complicating accurate reporting.
• Opinions on US intervention vary widely among Iranians, with some seeing it as necessary and others fearing its consequences.

Timeline: how we got here

Since the beginning of the year, Iran has been embroiled in protests that have escalated rapidly. Key dates include:

• 1 January 2023: Protests begin across Iran, driven by economic unrest.
• 7-8 January 2023: Increased public demonstrations in Tehran, with reports of clashes with security forces.
• 15 January 2023: Iranian authorities report over 3,117 deaths, claiming most are security personnel or bystanders.
• 20 January 2023: US President Donald Trump expresses support for the protesters during a press conference.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

As of late October 2023, protest activities continue but have waned in intensity compared to earlier in the year. Reports indicate ongoing repression, including arrests of medical personnel aiding injured protesters, and an internet blackout that persists, obstructing communications and information flow.

What was already established

Prior to the recent unrest, Iran experienced a series of protests, particularly in 2009 and 2019, largely motivated by political and economic grievances. These earlier protests were met with severe crackdowns, setting a precedent for the current government's response to dissent.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The impact of the unrest extends beyond Iran, with potential consequences for energy prices and global markets. Rising tensions may lead to fluctuations in oil prices, directly affecting UK consumers and businesses reliant on energy imports.

Businesses and jobs

Businesses engaged with Iran may face increased scrutiny and potential sanctions from the UK government, depending on international responses to the unrest. Supply chains could be disrupted, affecting jobs and employment opportunities both domestically and in sectors reliant on Iranian imports.

Policy and regulation

The UK government may be prompted to reassess its foreign policy regarding Iran, particularly in light of discussions surrounding potential US intervention. This could lead to new regulations or sanctions aimed at influencing the Iranian regime's behaviour.

Numbers that matter

• 6,000+: Confirmed deaths reported by HRANA amidst protests.
• 40,000: Estimated number of arrests since the protests began according to IHRNGO.
• 25,000: Potential death toll suggested by Iran Human Rights if violence continues unchecked.

Definitions and jargon buster

• HRANA: Human Rights Activists News Agency, an organisation that monitors human rights violations in Iran.
• IHRNGO: Iran Human Rights NGO, a nonpartisan group advocating for human rights in Iran.
• Internet blackout: A situation where internet access is restricted or completely cut off, often used by governments to limit communication during protests.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, the situation in Iran is likely to remain tense. Monitoring developments closely, especially in light of international discussions about intervention, will be crucial for understanding how the protests may evolve.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Over the next few months, the potential for either escalation or de-escalation of protests exists, depending on both internal political dynamics and external pressures, including US and international responses.

Signals to watch

• Changes in the Iranian government's response to protests, particularly regarding security measures.
• International discussions or actions regarding potential intervention or sanctions.
• Updates from human rights organisations on the situation regarding detainees and the overall human rights climate in Iran.

Practical guidance

Do

• Stay informed about developments in Iran through credible news sources.
• Support organisations advocating for human rights in Iran.
• Engage in discussions about the implications of international intervention in Iran.

Don’t

• Assume that all Iranians support US intervention; opinions vary widely.
• Ignore the potential consequences of intervention on civilians.
• Overlook the importance of supporting internal movements for change.

Checklist

• Monitor news updates on protests and government responses.
• Engage with community discussions on human rights issues.
• Research organisations working for Iranian rights and consider supporting their efforts.
• Understand the risks associated with foreign intervention in sovereign nations.
• Educate yourself on the historical context of US involvement in Iran.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

The debate surrounding US intervention in Iran is fraught with risks and uncertainties. Many Iranians fear that intervention could exacerbate the situation and lead to more violence against civilians. The historical context of previous foreign interventions also raises concerns about unintended consequences. Additionally, the lack of reliable information due to the ongoing internet blackout makes it difficult to assess the current situation accurately.

Bottom line

The situation in Iran is complex, with deep-rooted issues leading to widespread protests against the government. As discussions about US intervention intensify, it is essential to consider the potential implications for both the Iranian people and international relations. Balancing support for human rights with caution about foreign involvement will be crucial moving forward.

FAQs

What are the main causes of the protests in Iran?

The protests in Iran are primarily driven by economic hardship, dissatisfaction with the government, and calls for political reform. Many Iranians are frustrated with the deteriorating economic situation and the lack of basic freedoms.

How has the Iranian government responded to the protests?

The Iranian government has responded with increasing violence, including the use of deadly force against demonstrators. Reports indicate a significant number of arrests and ongoing repression of dissent.

What role could US intervention play in the situation?

US intervention could potentially change the dynamics of the protests, but opinions are divided among Iranians about whether it would help or harm their cause. Many fear that foreign involvement could lead to further violence and instability.