Will the UK Finally Get a Break from Rain?

This year, parts of the UK have experienced relentless rain, contributing to a notably wet winter. While forecasts hint at a potential shift to colder, drier weather in the coming weeks, the pattern of persistent precipitation remains a concern for many regions. Understanding the implications of these weather patterns is crucial for UK residents as they navigate the effects on daily life and infrastructure.

Last updated: 04 February 2026 (BST)

What’s happening now

The current weather situation in the UK is characterised by ongoing rainfall, particularly affecting southern and eastern regions. While there are indications of a potential improvement later in the week, with higher pressure expected to develop across the north, the immediate forecast suggests continued wet conditions. Notably, areas like Devon and Worcestershire have seen daily precipitation throughout January 2026, highlighting the severity of this winter's rain. Additionally, the Met Office has noted record rainfall in parts of Northern Ireland, with January being the wettest in 149 years.

Key takeaways

Parts of the UK have recorded continuous rain since the start of 2026.
Greater pressure may bring temporary drier and colder weather later in the week.
Significant rainfall has been observed, particularly in Northern Ireland and Cornwall.

Timeline: how we got here

The current weather situation has evolved through several key milestones:

January 2026: Northern Ireland records its wettest January in 149 years, with County Down and Cornwall also seeing record rainfall.
Early February 2026: Provisional data shows some areas experienced more rainfall in the first five days than the expected total for the month.
February 2026: Aberdeenshire experiences over 130% of its normal February rainfall in just five days.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Recent forecasts suggest a possible shift to drier conditions later in the week, with higher pressure building across northern regions. While this may lead to some sunshine and a drop in temperatures, wet weather is still predicted, particularly in the south.

What was already established

It has been widely reported that the UK is experiencing one of its wettest winters, exacerbated by a persistent jet stream bringing low pressure from the Atlantic. This pattern has caused significant rainfall and flooding, particularly in southern England.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The ongoing wet weather has significant implications for UK households, particularly in terms of travel disruptions and increased flooding risks. Residents in affected areas may need to prepare for emergency services and potential evacuations.

Businesses and jobs

For businesses, particularly those in agriculture and transport, the relentless rain poses challenges for operations. Supply chains may be disrupted due to road closures and flooding, impacting delivery schedules and inventory management.

Policy and regulation

Local and national governments may need to implement emergency measures to address flooding and ensure public safety. This could include additional funding for flood defences and infrastructure improvements to mitigate future risks.

Numbers that matter

149 years: The wettest January on record for Northern Ireland, according to the Met Office.
130%: The amount of normal February rainfall recorded in Aberdeenshire in just five days.
19 days: The consecutive days without rain recorded in Aultbea, highlighting the variability across the UK.

Definitions and jargon buster

Jet stream: A fast-flowing air current in the atmosphere that influences weather patterns, particularly the movement of low-pressure systems.
Low pressure: A weather system associated with cloudy, wet, and windy conditions.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, residents should remain vigilant for more wet weather, especially in southern regions. Keeping emergency supplies and flood preparation measures in place is advisable.

Medium term (1–6 months)

As we move through February and into spring, ongoing monitoring of weather patterns will be essential. Residents and businesses should consider long-term strategies for flood resilience.

Signals to watch

Forecast updates from the Met Office regarding shifts in pressure systems.
Local alerts for flooding and travel disruptions.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed through reliable weather sources.
Prepare emergency kits in case of flooding or power outages.

Don’t

Ignore local flooding alerts or warnings.
Attempt to drive through flooded areas.

Checklist

Check weather forecasts regularly.
Have a flood plan in place for your property.
Ensure your insurance covers potential flooding damage.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

Weather patterns remain unpredictable, and while forecasts suggest potential shifts, there is still a risk of continued wet conditions. Variability across different regions means that while some areas may experience respite, others may remain under persistent rain. Residents are advised to stay updated on weather conditions and government advisories.

Bottom line

The UK is currently facing one of its wettest winters on record, with heavy rainfall impacting daily life, infrastructure, and the economy. While there may be temporary improvements in weather patterns, the overall trend suggests ongoing risks of flooding and disruptions. Preparedness and vigilance are crucial for navigating the challenges ahead.

FAQs

What can I expect from the weather this week?

Expect continued wet conditions, particularly in southern regions, but a potential shift to drier weather could occur later in the week as higher pressure builds.

How is the wet weather affecting travel?

Travel disruptions are likely due to flooding and road closures in affected areas, particularly in southern and south-western England.

What should I do if I live in a flood-prone area?

If you live in a flood-prone area, ensure you have an emergency plan in place, stay informed about weather updates, and prepare necessary supplies.