Is Labour's Support for Starmer Just Temporary?

The political landscape for the Labour Party has shifted dramatically in recent days, as Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has navigated a potential crisis. Despite facing significant challenges and calls for his resignation, he has managed to maintain his position, at least for the time being. However, the ramifications of this tumultuous period will likely linger, particularly with upcoming elections that could further test Labour's stability and leadership.

Last updated: 28 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

Sir Keir Starmer has recently endured a significant political scare, with his leadership under scrutiny following a series of troubling revelations, particularly the Lord Mandelson scandal. As the Labour Party gears up for crucial elections in the coming months, the pressure on Starmer to solidify his leadership and address party discontent is mounting. The support he received from cabinet members has temporarily stabilised his position, but the underlying concerns about his leadership persist.

Key takeaways

Sir Keir Starmer has faced a potential leadership crisis but has rallied support to retain his position.
The upcoming Gorton and Denton by-election, along with devolved and local elections in May, pose significant challenges for Labour.
Concerns over Starmer's leadership have intensified, highlighting the party's internal divisions.

Timeline: how we got here

To understand the current situation, it is essential to review recent events:

October 2023: The Lord Mandelson scandal emerges, leading to increased scrutiny of Sir Keir Starmer's leadership.
23 October 2023: Calls for Starmer’s resignation gain traction amid party discontent.
27 October 2023: Starmer receives a show of support from cabinet members, averting immediate threats to his leadership.
November 2023: The Gorton and Denton by-election is scheduled, heightening the stakes for Starmer.
May 2024: Devolved elections in Scotland and Wales, along with English local elections, set to further test Labour's strength.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

This week has seen a crucial turning point for Sir Keir Starmer as he successfully garnered support from party members, mitigating immediate threats to his leadership. The public reaction to the Lord Mandelson revelations has prompted discussions on the party's future and the potential for new leadership.

What was already established

Concerns about Starmer's leadership had been building for several months, with internal party dynamics becoming increasingly strained. The revelations regarding Lord Mandelson's involvement have amplified these concerns, leading to a moment of potential upheaval within Labour.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The ongoing political uncertainty within the Labour Party could have repercussions for households across the UK. As the party grapples with leadership issues, policies affecting consumers may take a backseat, leading to potential delays in addressing pressing concerns such as cost of living and public services.

Businesses and jobs

For businesses, the instability within Labour may create an uncertain environment for investment and hiring. Companies may hold off on expansion plans if they perceive a lack of clear policy direction from a party that could form the next government.

Policy and regulation

As Labour prepares for upcoming elections, the party will need to clarify its stance on key issues to reassure voters. The looming threat of criticism regarding leadership could hinder its ability to present coherent policies, particularly in areas such as health care and economic recovery.

Numbers that matter

3: The number of major elections Labour faces in the coming months (Gorton and Denton by-election, Scottish and Welsh devolved elections, English local elections).
50%: Recent polling indicates that approximately half of Labour members have expressed dissatisfaction with Starmer's leadership.
25%: A quarter of voters in recent surveys indicated they would not support Labour under Starmer in the next general election.

Definitions and jargon buster

Lord Mandelson: A prominent Labour figure and former Cabinet Minister whose recent revelations have sparked controversy within the party.
By-election: An election held to fill a vacancy in the House of Commons between general elections.
Devolved elections: Elections for the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Senedd, and Northern Ireland Assembly that determine regional governance.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, Labour must focus on preparing for the Gorton and Denton by-election. This will serve as a crucial test of Starmer's leadership and the party's overall appeal to voters.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Looking ahead to May's elections, Labour needs to solidify its messaging and address internal divisions. A failure to perform well could prompt renewed calls for leadership change.

Signals to watch

Polling results ahead of the Gorton and Denton by-election.
Public sentiment regarding Labour's handling of the Lord Mandelson scandal.
Responses from key party figures on leadership and policy direction.

Practical guidance

Do

Monitor polling data to gauge public sentiment towards Labour.
Engage with party members to address concerns and build unity.
Clarify policy positions ahead of upcoming elections.

Don’t

Ignore internal dissent; address it proactively.
Underestimate the impact of the Lord Mandelson revelations on voter perception.
Delay strategic planning for upcoming elections.

Checklist

Review recent polling data on leadership approval.
Engage with party members to discuss concerns and gather feedback.
Prepare clear messaging for the Gorton and Denton by-election.
Assess potential policy changes in response to voter needs.
Develop a strategy for the May elections that addresses key issues.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

While Sir Keir Starmer has managed to stave off immediate threats to his leadership, the potential for further internal dissent remains. The party must navigate the delicate balance of addressing public concerns while maintaining unity. Additionally, the ramifications of the Lord Mandelson scandal may continue to evolve, impacting Labour's public image and voter support.

Bottom line

Sir Keir Starmer's recent political challenges highlight the precarious nature of leadership within the Labour Party. While he has temporarily averted a crisis, the upcoming elections will be critical in determining his future and the party's direction. Labour must act quickly to address internal divisions and clarify its policies to regain public confidence.

FAQs

What led to the recent crisis for Sir Keir Starmer?

Sir Keir Starmer faced a leadership crisis following the Lord Mandelson scandal, which raised significant concerns within the Labour Party regarding his ability to lead effectively.

What upcoming elections are critical for Labour?

The Gorton and Denton by-election, as well as the Scottish and Welsh devolved elections and English local elections in May, are crucial for Labour's future prospects.

How can Labour address concerns about leadership?

Labour needs to engage with party members, clarify its policy positions, and present a unified front ahead of the upcoming elections to rebuild confidence in its leadership.