Did Trump Just Revoke a Key Ruling on Greenhouse Gases and Public Health?

The recent reversal of the Obama-era "endangerment finding" by US President Donald Trump marks a significant shift in federal policy towards greenhouse gas emissions. This 2009 ruling established that certain greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, pose a danger to public health, forming the foundation for extensive environmental regulations. The Trump administration claims this reversal will significantly cut costs for automakers and consumers, but environmental advocates warn of dire consequences for public health and the climate.

Last updated: 24 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The Trump administration's decision to reverse the 2009 endangerment finding is arguably the most significant deregulation effort regarding climate change in US history. This move is expected to fundamentally alter how greenhouse gases are regulated across various sectors, including automotive, energy, and industry. While the White House touts potential savings of over £800 billion for manufacturers and consumers, scepticism abounds regarding the actual impacts on public health and the environment.

Key takeaways

• The 2009 endangerment finding recognised greenhouse gases as a threat to public health.
• Trump's administration claims the reversal will save costs for automakers and consumers.
• Environmental groups are preparing legal challenges against the rollback.

Timeline: how we got here

Understanding the context of the endangerment finding and its reversal involves tracing back key dates and milestones:

• 2009: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), under President Barack Obama, establishes the endangerment finding.
• 2010-2016: The finding becomes central to various federal regulations targeting greenhouse gas emissions.
• 2017: The Trump administration begins efforts to roll back multiple environmental regulations, citing economic benefits.
• 2020: The reversal of the endangerment finding is formally announced, aiming to deregulate greenhouse gas emissions.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The primary new development is the formal announcement of the rollback of the endangerment finding, which has prompted immediate responses from environmental groups and legal experts. The administration claims the reversal is a significant step towards reducing regulatory burdens on the automotive industry.

What was already established

The endangerment finding established a framework for regulating greenhouse gases, recognised as a public health threat. Environmental regulations that have stemmed from this finding form the backbone of US efforts to combat climate change. The Trump administration's move is seen as an attempt to dismantle these protections in favour of economic growth.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The reversal may not directly impact the UK, but it underscores a growing divide in climate policy between the US and other nations, including the UK, which has committed to ambitious climate targets. UK consumers could feel indirect effects through global supply chains and climate diplomacy.

Businesses and jobs

UK businesses, particularly in the automotive sector, may need to reassess their strategies in light of US regulatory changes. If US manufacturers shift towards less efficient vehicles, this could impact UK automotive exports and partnerships.

Policy and regulation

This reversal may influence UK climate policy discussions, particularly in how regulatory frameworks are constructed. The UK government has been working towards net-zero emissions by 2050, and developments in the US could prompt a re-evaluation of transatlantic environmental cooperation.

Numbers that matter

• £800 billion: The claimed savings for automakers and consumers from the deregulation.
• £1.4 trillion: Estimated additional fuel costs that may arise for consumers due to less efficient vehicles.
• 58,000: Projected additional premature deaths attributed to the rollback, according to environmental analysts.
• 37 million: Increased asthma attacks projected as a result of more pollution from vehicles.

Definitions and jargon buster

• Endangerment finding: A legal determination that certain greenhouse gases pose a threat to public health and welfare.
• Greenhouse gases: Gases that trap heat in the atmosphere, contributing to climate change, such as carbon dioxide and methane.
• EPA: Environmental Protection Agency, the US federal agency responsible for regulating environmental issues.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

Legal challenges against the reversal are anticipated to unfold quickly, with environmental groups likely initiating lawsuits in response to the deregulation.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Watch for potential responses from state governments and environmental organisations as they mobilise to challenge the rollback in court and seek to establish stricter regulations at the state level.

Signals to watch

• Legal outcomes from challenges against the EPA's rollback.
• Impact assessments from environmental groups on public health and safety.
• Reactions from international climate coalitions and agreements.

Practical guidance

Do

• Stay informed about ongoing legal challenges and their potential impacts on regulations.
• Consider the implications of US climate policy changes on global environmental issues.

Don’t

• Assume that the rollback will lead to immediate and significant cost savings for consumers.
• Ignore the potential long-term health impacts of increased pollution.

Checklist

• Review local emissions regulations and how they may change.
• Monitor news and analyses from credible environmental organisations.
• Evaluate personal or business strategies in light of potential regulatory changes.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

While the reversal of the endangerment finding may bring short-term economic benefits, the long-term health and environmental consequences remain highly uncertain. The legal battles ahead could reshape the regulatory landscape significantly, depending on court rulings. Moreover, the scientific basis for the rollback has faced substantial criticism, raising questions about the reliability of future regulations.

Bottom line

The reversal of the endangerment finding represents a pivotal moment in US climate policy, with implications that extend beyond American borders. As legal challenges unfold and the impacts of deregulation become clearer, it remains crucial for stakeholders in the UK and globally to engage with the evolving climate landscape and advocate for sustainable practices.

FAQs

What is the endangerment finding?

The endangerment finding is a legal ruling by the EPA that established certain greenhouse gases as a threat to public health, serving as the basis for environmental regulations.

How does the reversal of the endangerment finding affect consumers?

The reversal is claimed to lower costs for automakers, but it may lead to higher fuel costs and increased health risks for consumers in the long term.

What are the potential environmental impacts of this decision?

Environmental experts warn that repealing the endangerment finding could lead to increased pollution, higher rates of health issues, and a setback in efforts to combat climate change.