Will Kenya's Border with Somalia Re-Open After 15 Years?

The reopening of Kenya's border with Somalia in April marks a significant turning point after nearly 15 years of closure due to security concerns linked to the Islamist militant group al-Shabab. President William Ruto announced this decision during a visit to the border town of Mandera, emphasising the need to restore connections that have been severed and to boost cross-border trade while maintaining security.

Last updated: 13 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

Kenya is set to reopen its border with Somalia in April 2024, following years of closure due to a series of deadly attacks attributed to al-Shabab. President Ruto's announcement reflects a commitment to not only enhance trade between the two nations but also to facilitate social connections among communities living along the border. The reopening comes after thorough security assessments and a promise of increased military presence to safeguard against potential threats.

Key takeaways

The border closure lasted nearly 15 years due to security threats from al-Shabab.
President Ruto announced the reopening during a visit to Mandera, aiming to boost trade and connectivity.
Security forces will be heavily deployed to ensure safety at the reopened crossings.

Timeline: how we got here

Key dates leading to the reopening of the Kenya-Somalia border include:

October 2011: Kenya launches military operations in Somalia to combat al-Shabab.
September 2013: The Westgate shopping centre attack in Nairobi results in 67 fatalities.
April 2015: The Garissa University attack kills 148 people.
2015: Kenya begins constructing a perimeter barrier along the common border, which is later suspended after limited progress.
2023: Initial plans for reopening the border are announced but delayed due to security concerns.
October 2023: President Ruto announces the reopening set for April 2024.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

President Ruto's announcement regarding the reopening of the border has brought renewed hope for the communities in Mandera, who have been cut off from their Somali neighbours for years. This decision is aimed at revitalising trade and addressing the grievances of the local population.

What was already established

The security concerns surrounding the border have been long-standing due to multiple attacks by al-Shabab, which has claimed numerous lives and disrupted daily life in the border regions. Previous attempts to enhance security, such as the construction of a perimeter barrier, have faced significant setbacks.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

While the reopening of the border primarily affects Kenya and Somalia, UK consumers may see indirect effects, such as shifts in regional stability that could influence global supply chains and trade routes. Enhanced security in East Africa may foster more reliable trade networks that eventually benefit UK businesses engaged in international relations.

Businesses and jobs

The reopening is expected to stimulate cross-border trade, which can lead to job creation in both Kenya and Somalia. UK-based companies with interests in East African markets might find new opportunities for investment and collaboration as stability improves in the region.

Policy and regulation

As the border reopens, UK policymakers may need to monitor the implications for regional security and trade agreements. Increased collaboration between Kenya and Somalia could affect UK foreign policy in the region, particularly concerning counter-terrorism efforts and economic partnerships.

Numbers that matter

67: The number of people killed in the 2013 Westgate shopping centre attack.
148: The fatalities from the Garissa University attack in 2015.
680 km: The length of the border between Kenya and Somalia.
26 million GBP: The cost of the suspended perimeter barrier project.
423 miles: The equivalent length of the Kenya-Somalia border in miles.

Definitions and jargon buster

Al-Shabab: An extremist militant group based in Somalia known for its attacks in the region.
Mandera: A border town in Kenya with a significant population of ethnic Somalis, often affected by cross-border issues.
Perimeter barrier: A physical structure intended to secure borders and prevent illegal crossings.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, residents of Mandera and surrounding areas will likely experience heightened military presence as preparations for the reopening take place. Authorities will need to address any emerging security concerns during this transition.

Medium term (1–6 months)

As the border reopens, the focus will shift to monitoring the effectiveness of security measures and the impact on cross-border trade. Local businesses may begin to adapt to increased commerce and movement.

Signals to watch

Reports of security incidents near the border crossings.
Changes in trade volumes between Kenya and Somalia.
Government assessments on the success of security measures in the area.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed about regional security updates and travel advisories.
Engage with local businesses to understand new trading opportunities.
Monitor government communications regarding border security policies.

Don’t

Assume that the reopening will immediately restore normalcy.
Neglect safety precautions when travelling near the border area.
Overlook the potential need for new trade agreements with Somali businesses.

Checklist

Verify travel safety before visiting border regions.
Research local businesses for potential partnerships.
Follow updates from Kenyan authorities regarding security measures.
Prepare for possible delays in trade as systems are established.
Stay connected with community leaders for local insights.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

Despite the positive outlook surrounding the reopening, risks remain. The ongoing threat of al-Shabab poses a significant challenge, and any resurgence in violence could derail progress. Furthermore, the efficiency of security measures in preventing illegal activities across the border will need continuous assessment. The situation remains fluid, and stakeholders must remain vigilant.

Bottom line

The decision to reopen the Kenya-Somalia border is a pivotal step towards restoring regional connections and boosting trade. However, the success of this initiative hinges on effective security measures to combat al-Shabab and ensure the safety of communities along the border. Stakeholders must remain proactive in monitoring developments and adapting to the evolving landscape.

FAQs

When is the Kenya-Somalia border reopening?

The Kenya-Somalia border is set to reopen in April 2024, after being closed for nearly 15 years due to security concerns related to al-Shabab.

What security measures will be in place at the reopened border?

There will be a heavy deployment of security forces to ensure safety at the reopened crossings, as indicated by President Ruto in his announcement.

How might the border reopening affect trade between Kenya and Somalia?

The reopening is expected to boost cross-border trade, benefiting local economies and fostering stronger ties between communities in both countries.