Can Kemi Badenoch Save Wales for the Tories?

Kemi Badenoch has taken a bold stance at the Conservative Party's Welsh conference, asserting that her party has a comprehensive plan to "fix Wales". Despite acknowledging the challenging landscape for the Tories, particularly with recent defections to Reform UK, Badenoch remains optimistic about the Conservatives' prospects in the upcoming Senedd elections.

Last updated: 28 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

Kemi Badenoch's rallying cry at the Conservative conference in Llandudno underscores a critical moment for the party in Wales, which has been struggling in opinion polls. Recent defections of two staff members and a Senedd politician to Nigel Farage's Reform UK have intensified concerns about the Conservatives’ viability in the region. With the Senedd elections fast approaching in May 2024, Badenoch’s leadership is under scrutiny as her party aims to regain momentum and support among Welsh voters.

Key takeaways

Kemi Badenoch acknowledges a challenging period for the Conservatives in Wales.
Recent defections to Reform UK have raised concerns about the party's stability.
Darren Millar claims Wales has been "broken" under Labour’s long-standing governance.
The Tories are set to present policies aimed at boosting Welsh industry and cutting taxes.
Upcoming Senedd elections in May 2024 pose a significant test for the Conservatives.

Timeline: how we got here

Understanding the context of the Conservatives' current situation in Wales requires a brief look back at recent events:

May 2021: The last Senedd elections result in a continued Labour majority in Wales.
October 2023: Kemi Badenoch attends the Welsh Conservative conference amidst reports of defections to Reform UK.
November 2023: The Conservatives face increasing pressure as opinion polls show them lagging behind in Welsh support ahead of the next elections.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

At the Welsh conference, Badenoch outlined her plans for revitalising Welsh industry and the economy, promising to lower energy costs and reduce regulations. She also emphasised the need for the Conservatives to appeal directly to the electorate, highlighting the new voting system that may enhance their chances.

What was already established

The Conservative Party in Wales has been grappling with declining support since the last Senedd elections, where they finished third. The party's leadership has faced criticism for its handling of local issues, and the recent defections have only compounded these challenges.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

For Welsh consumers, the proposed policies could mean lower taxes and potentially reduced bills if energy costs are addressed as promised. However, the effectiveness of these policies will be crucial in determining public perception of the Conservative Party moving forward.

Businesses and jobs

Badenoch's commitment to cutting regulation and fostering British industry could have significant implications for job creation in Wales. The Conservatives aim to position themselves as the party of business, responding to concerns from local enterprises about taxation and regulation.

Policy and regulation

As the party prepares for the upcoming elections, the Conservatives are expected to focus heavily on their manifesto, which will include promises of economic revitalisation and a critical assessment of Labour's governance over the past 27 years. This could also involve discussions around collaboration with other parties, including Reform UK and Plaid Cymru.

Numbers that matter

27 years: The duration of Labour's governance in Wales, which has been cited as a contributing factor to the region's challenges.
Fourth place: Current projections for the Conservatives in upcoming Senedd elections, according to recent polls.
1 penny: Proposed income tax cut by the Conservatives to stimulate economic activity.
May 2024: The date of the upcoming Senedd elections, a crucial test for the Conservative Party in Wales.

Definitions and jargon buster

Senedd: The Welsh Parliament, responsible for making decisions on devolved matters in Wales.
Defection: The act of leaving one political party to join another.
Labour: The main opposition party in the UK, which has been in power in Wales since 1999.
Reform UK: A political party in the UK, founded by Nigel Farage, focusing on issues like Brexit and public services.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

The immediate focus for the Conservatives will be to consolidate their base and address the fallout from recent defections. This will involve outreach to both current supporters and those who may be wavering.

Medium term (1–6 months)

As the elections approach, the party will need to implement its strategy of promoting key policies and countering Labour's narratives about their governance. Building alliances or at least presenting a united front will be essential.

Signals to watch

Polling data leading up to the May elections, particularly in key constituencies.
Any further defections from the Conservative ranks, which could indicate deeper issues within the party.
Responses from Labour and Plaid Cymru to Conservative policy announcements.

Practical guidance

Do

Engage with local issues that resonate with voters.
Communicate clearly and consistently about party policies and their benefits.
Monitor public sentiment and adjust strategies accordingly.

Don’t

Underestimate the impact of recent defections on party morale.
Ignore the narratives being pushed by opposition parties.
Be complacent about the significance of upcoming elections.

Checklist

Assess current polling and identify areas of weakness.
Prepare a clear and compelling manifesto for the elections.
Engage with community leaders and stakeholders to build support.
Ensure that messaging is coherent and resonates with voters' needs.
Establish a strategy for addressing potential coalition talks post-election.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

While the Conservatives are aiming to recover lost ground in Wales, there are notable uncertainties ahead. The outcomes of the upcoming elections could be influenced by further defections, shifts in public sentiment, or unexpected external events. Additionally, the effectiveness of proposed policies will be scrutinised, and any failure to deliver on promises could lead to further erosion of voter trust.

Bottom line

The Conservative Party faces a pivotal moment in Wales, with the upcoming Senedd elections serving as a critical juncture. Kemi Badenoch's leadership will be tested, and the party's ability to effectively communicate its vision and policies will determine its success in regaining voter confidence. The next steps are crucial, as the Tories must navigate a complex political landscape filled with challenges and opportunities.

FAQs

What is Kemi Badenoch's plan for Wales?

Kemi Badenoch has outlined a plan aimed at revitalising the Welsh economy by boosting British industry, cutting regulations, and reducing energy costs.

How has the Conservative Party fared in recent polls?

Recent opinion polls suggest that the Conservative Party is currently in fourth place, facing significant challenges ahead of the upcoming Senedd elections.

What are the implications of recent defections to Reform UK?

The defections to Reform UK have raised concerns about the stability of the Conservative Party and could impact their performance in the upcoming elections.