Is a Champions League Play-Off Really That Bad?

The UEFA Champions League is set to resume with 24 teams aiming for glory, including notable clubs like Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid. As the knockout stage approaches, those finishing between ninth and 24th will compete in a two-legged play-off to secure their place in the last 16. This article explores the implications for the teams involved and the broader impact on the tournament.

Last updated: 14 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

This week marks a pivotal moment in the UEFA Champions League as the knockout play-offs begin. Sixteen teams will compete for eight spots in the last 16, including several prominent clubs that finished outside the top eight in the league phase. The stakes are high, as teams like Benfica face the daunting task of overcoming Real Madrid for a chance at redemption. Meanwhile, Newcastle United represent the English clubs in these crucial matches, hoping to progress against Qarabag.

Key takeaways

24 teams remain in the Champions League, vying for eight spots in the last 16.
Notable clubs like PSG and Real Madrid must navigate the knockout play-offs.
Newcastle has an 88.5% chance of defeating Qarabag in their play-off.
The play-off winners will face tough opponents in the next round, including top teams like Barcelona and Chelsea.
English clubs have generally fared well, with five out of six finishing in the top eight.

Timeline: how we got here

The road to the Champions League knockout phase has been intense. Here’s a brief timeline of key events:

September 2023: Champions League group stage begins, featuring 36 teams across various groups.
January 2024: Teams complete their league phase, with the top eight advancing directly to the last 16.
January 2024: Teams finishing between ninth and 24th prepare for the knockout play-offs.
17-18 February 2024: First legs of the knockout play-offs take place.
24-25 February 2024: Second legs of the knockout play-offs take place.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

As the Champions League resumes, several teams are preparing for crucial matches, including Benfica's rematch against Real Madrid, which promises to be a thrilling encounter following their previous dramatic game. PSG is also gearing up for their tie against Monaco, with manager Luis Enrique confident in their chances of repeating last season's success.

What was already established

Previously, it was noted that five English teams secured positions among the top eight, achieving direct qualification for the last 16. Arsenal topped the league phase, while Newcastle's journey to the knockouts is historic, marking a significant achievement for the club.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The Champions League holds substantial significance for UK fans, sparking interest in football-related events and merchandise. The performances of clubs like Newcastle and Arsenal can impact local economies, particularly in areas with strong football cultures.

Businesses and jobs

For businesses, the Champions League provides opportunities for increased sales, especially in pubs and restaurants that attract fans for matches. Successful teams can also boost merchandise sales, benefiting local retailers and manufacturers.

Policy and regulation

With the Champions League's high profile, discussions around sports governance and fair play continue to emerge. Regulatory bodies may assess the financial implications for clubs involved in the competition, especially those participating in play-offs.

Numbers that matter

5–0: The score by which Paris Saint-Germain defeated Inter Milan in the 2025 final, setting a record for the biggest win in a Champions League final.
4-2: The scoreline by which Benfica defeated Real Madrid to advance to the knockout stage, showcasing their resilience.
30%: Arsenal's calculated chance of winning the Champions League, the highest among English teams.
88.5%: Newcastle's odds of defeating Qarabag, reflecting strong confidence in their abilities.
10%: The chance given to both Manchester City and Liverpool of lifting the trophy this season.

Definitions and jargon buster

Champions League: An annual club football competition organised by UEFA, featuring top teams from various European leagues.
Knockout stage: The rounds of a tournament where teams compete in single-elimination matches.
Play-offs: Additional matches for teams that did not automatically qualify for the next tournament round.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

Teams will focus on their upcoming play-off matches with strategies centred on winning to secure advancement. For clubs like Newcastle, preparation will be key to overcoming Qarabag.

Medium term (1–6 months)

If successful in the play-offs, clubs will need to prepare for the last 16, which will introduce new challenges and stronger opponents. Maintaining fitness and team cohesion will be crucial.

Signals to watch

Match outcomes in the play-offs on 24-25 February will determine which teams advance.
Performance metrics from clubs in the knockout stages will indicate potential success in the tournament.
Injury reports and squad updates as teams approach crucial matches will be important to follow.

Practical guidance

Do

Keep an eye on match schedules and team news to stay informed about your favourite clubs.
Engage with local fan communities to enhance the matchday experience.
Consider supporting local businesses that benefit from matchday traffic.

Don’t

Don’t overlook the significance of smaller clubs in the knockout rounds; surprises can happen.
Avoid assuming that top-seeded teams will always advance; upsets are common in knockout football.
Don’t forget to enjoy the broader football culture and festivities surrounding Champions League matches.

Checklist

Review team forms and past performances in the Champions League.
Plan match viewing arrangements, whether at home or in a venue.
Stay updated on player fitness and team strategies.
Engage with social media discussions surrounding the matches.
Consider purchasing merchandise to support your team during the tournament.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

As the tournament progresses, uncertainties remain, particularly regarding team form and injuries. The unpredictability of knockout football means that even teams with higher odds can face unexpected challenges. Additionally, external factors such as fan behaviour and officiating can influence match outcomes, adding layers of complexity to predictions.

Bottom line

As the Champions League enters its knockout phase, the competition remains fierce, with several teams vying for the coveted trophy. Clubs must navigate the challenges of additional matches while maintaining focus and determination to succeed. With historic opportunities on the line, fans can expect thrilling encounters in the weeks ahead.

FAQs

What is the format of the Champions League knockout stage?

The knockout stage involves elimination matches where teams face off in two-legged ties, with the aggregate score determining who advances.

How do teams qualify for the knockout phase?

Teams qualify based on their performance in the league phase, with the top eight advancing directly while others compete in play-offs.

What are the chances of English teams winning the Champions League?

Currently, Arsenal has a 30% chance, while Newcastle, Tottenham, and Inter Milan each have a 3% chance, reflecting the competitive landscape of the tournament.