Is the UK Strengthening Security with New Drone Defence Plan Alongside EU Allies?

The UK is set to develop new air defence weapons in collaboration with the EU's four largest military powers: Germany, France, Italy, and Poland. This initiative aims to strengthen ties within the European defence sector and will focus on creating low-cost missiles and autonomous drones. The urgency of this project is driven by lessons learned from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, where rapid innovation in affordable drone technology has proven essential against larger military threats.

Last updated: 12 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The UK’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) has announced a collaborative air defence project alongside Germany, France, Italy, and Poland, collectively known as the E5. This initiative will invite manufacturers from these countries to submit proposals for developing cost-effective missiles and autonomous drones. The focus will be on lightweight, affordable surface-to-air weapons, with the first project expected to be delivered by 2024. This partnership marks a significant development in UK-European defence relations, especially following the unsuccessful negotiations last year regarding the UK's involvement in the EU's €150bn (£130bn) defence fund.

Key takeaways

• The UK is collaborating with Germany, France, Italy, and Poland on new air defence technologies.
• The initiative focuses on low-cost missiles and autonomous drones, inspired by Ukraine's military strategies.
• Each participating country has committed multimillion-pound investments to the project.

Timeline: how we got here

The collaborative project was announced during a meeting of the defence ministers of the five countries in Krakow on 6 October 2023. This meeting comes after a series of discussions aimed at enhancing European defence cooperation, particularly in light of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Prior to this, negotiations for the UK's participation in the EU's defence fund collapsed in 2022 due to disagreements over entry fees and funding mechanisms.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The most significant development is the formal announcement of the E5 collaboration to develop air defence systems, with a clear focus on cost-effective solutions that reflect the current security landscape. Defence Minister Luke Pollard highlighted the need to match defence costs with the threats posed by low-cost missiles and drones.

What was already established

Prior to this announcement, the UK had been engaged in discussions about enhancing its military capabilities, particularly in the realm of autonomous systems. A review of UK military capabilities conducted in summer 2022 indicated a shift towards less restrictive regulations regarding the use of autonomous drones and AI in military applications.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

This initiative may not have an immediate direct impact on UK consumers and households, but it signifies a long-term commitment to national security. Increased defence spending could lead to potential economic benefits through job creation in the defence sector and related industries.

Businesses and jobs

For UK defence manufacturers, this project presents new opportunities for collaboration and innovation. The focus on low-cost production methods may stimulate growth in the defence sector, particularly for smaller technology firms. As the MoD seeks to partner with these companies, job creation and investment in research and development could follow.

Policy and regulation

The E5 collaboration indicates a shift in the UK's approach to defence policy, moving towards a more integrated European defence strategy. This could lead to changes in regulatory frameworks governing defence technologies, particularly regarding the use of autonomous systems in military operations.

Numbers that matter

• £130 billion - the estimated value of the EU’s defence fund that the UK had sought to join.
• Multimillion-pound investments from each of the five E5 nations into the new defence project.
• 2024 - the target year for delivering the first project from the new collaboration.

Definitions and jargon buster

• E5: Refers to the group of five European countries (UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Poland) collaborating on defence initiatives.
• Autonomous drones: Unmanned aerial vehicles that can operate independently, often using artificial intelligence to identify targets.
• Surface-to-air weapon: A missile or other weapon designed to be launched from the ground to destroy airborne targets.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, the focus will be on finalising the operational plans for the collaborative project and selecting manufacturers for the development of the new weapons. Defence ministers from the E5 will likely continue to meet to refine the scope and objectives of the initiative.

Medium term (1–6 months)

As the project progresses, we can expect formal announcements regarding the specific technologies and manufacturers involved. There may also be discussions about broader implications for European defence spending and cooperation.

Signals to watch

• Updates from defence ministers regarding the progress of the E5 collaboration.
• Reactions from the defence industry concerning opportunities for participation in the new project.
• Changes in UK defence policy that may arise as a result of this collaboration.

Practical guidance

Do

• Stay informed about developments in UK defence policy and European military cooperation.
• Engage with local defence manufacturers and technology firms for potential opportunities.

Don’t

• Assume that changes in defence policy will not affect broader economic conditions.
• Neglect the importance of cybersecurity in relation to autonomous systems.

Checklist

• Review the latest updates from the MoD regarding the E5 project.
• Evaluate potential impacts on your business or career related to the defence sector.
• Monitor developments in autonomous technology regulations.
• Consider the implications of increased defence spending on the UK economy.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

While the collaboration presents significant opportunities for enhancing defence capabilities, there are uncertainties regarding budget allocations and the exact timeline for project delivery. Additionally, the technological challenges related to developing effective autonomous systems must be addressed. The evolving geopolitical landscape could also impact the stability and progress of the E5 initiative.

Bottom line

The UK’s new air defence collaboration with Germany, France, Italy, and Poland marks a pivotal moment in European military cooperation. By prioritising low-cost, innovative solutions to emerging threats, this initiative aims to enhance national security while fostering economic growth within the defence sector. Monitoring this project will be crucial for understanding its broader implications on UK defence policy and European relations.

FAQs

What is the purpose of the UK’s collaboration with EU countries on air defence?

The purpose of this collaboration is to develop new air defence weapons, focusing on low-cost missiles and autonomous drones, enhancing military capabilities in response to emerging threats.

When is the first project expected to be delivered?

The first project from the collaboration is expected to be delivered by 2024.

How will this collaboration impact UK defence policy?

This collaboration is likely to influence UK defence policy by promoting greater integration with European defence strategies and potentially shifting regulations regarding autonomous military systems.