Who Came Out on Top in F1 Pre-Season Testing: Winners and Losers?

The final pre-season test for Formula 1 in Bahrain has set the stage for a transformative 2026 season, with Mercedes' George Russell emerging as the pre-season favourite while Aston Martin, led by Fernando Alonso, faces significant challenges. The test results indicate a strong performance from Ferrari and Mercedes, while Aston Martin struggles with reliability and competitiveness, casting doubt on their prospects for the upcoming season.

Last updated: 10 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The conclusion of the pre-season testing in Bahrain has revealed a notable shift in the competitive landscape of Formula 1 as teams prepare for the first race in Melbourne, Australia. The standout performances from Mercedes and Ferrari suggest they will be the frontrunners as the season commences. In stark contrast, Aston Martin's struggles, particularly with their new Honda power unit, have left them at the back of the grid and in a precarious position heading into the season opener.

Key takeaways

George Russell of Mercedes is currently the pre-season favourite for the championship.
Ferrari's Charles Leclerc recorded the fastest lap in testing, indicating strong pace.
Aston Martin faces significant reliability issues, risking a poor start to the season.
McLaren and Red Bull appear competitive, but not on the level of Ferrari and Mercedes.
The new hybrid power units have altered driving dynamics, forcing teams to adapt their strategies.

Timeline: how we got here

Since the commencement of pre-season testing, several key dates have highlighted the evolving narrative of the 2026 Formula 1 season:

1–3 March 2026: Pre-season testing in Bahrain, revealing early performance indicators.
5 March 2026: Teams depart for the season opener in Melbourne, Australia.
10 March 2026: First race of the 2026 season at Albert Park, Melbourne.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

The latest round of tests confirmed that Mercedes and Ferrari are likely to dominate the early races, with notable race simulation performances indicating their superior pace and reliability. Meanwhile, Aston Martin's struggles with their new Honda power unit are a significant concern, with reports of ongoing reliability issues hampering their performance.

What was already established

Prior to the testing, it was understood that Mercedes and Ferrari would be competitive this season; however, Aston Martin's disappointing performance has emerged as a surprising development. The expectation was that with their new partnership with Honda, they would at least be competitive in the midfield, if not challenging for the top positions.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The developments in F1 may influence consumer interest and viewership in the UK, particularly with increased anticipation around Mercedes and Ferrari's performances. As the sport gains traction, related merchandise and advertising revenues could see a boost, impacting local economies.

Businesses and jobs

With the heightened competitiveness from Mercedes and Ferrari, there is a potential for increased investment in the UK motorsport sector, creating job opportunities in engineering, design, and manufacturing. However, if Aston Martin continues to falter, it could lead to a decrease in job security for those associated with the team.

Policy and regulation

The regulatory landscape surrounding F1 remains dynamic, with discussions ongoing about engine specifications and hybrid power units. The UK motorsport industry may need to adapt to these changes, ensuring compliance with new rules while also pushing for innovations that enhance competitiveness.

Numbers that matter

Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) recorded a fastest lap of 1:31.992 seconds.
Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes) followed with a lap time of 1:32.803 seconds.
McLaren's Oscar Piastri clocked in at 1:32.861 seconds.
Red Bull's Max Verstappen achieved a time of 1:33.109 seconds.
Aston Martin's Lance Stroll struggled with a time of 1:35.974 seconds.

Definitions and jargon buster

Hybrid power unit: A combination of traditional internal combustion engine and electric motor used in modern F1 cars.
Race simulation: A testing method where teams run their cars over a distance equivalent to a race to assess performance and fuel consumption.
Compression ratio: A measurement of the maximum volume of an engine's cylinder compared to the minimum volume, impacting power output.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

As teams prepare for the opening race in Melbourne, they will be focused on optimising their setups and addressing any issues identified during testing. Mercedes and Ferrari will aim to maintain their competitive edge, while Aston Martin must swiftly resolve reliability concerns.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Throughout the early races of the season, teams will gather valuable data that will inform ongoing development. The performance of Aston Martin will be closely monitored as they seek to improve their standings and avoid a repeat of past disappointments.

Signals to watch

Performance of Mercedes and Ferrari in the opening races.
Aston Martin’s ability to resolve reliability issues.
Development updates from teams during the season.

Practical guidance

Do

Follow the race schedule closely to stay updated on team performances.
Engage with F1 fan communities to share insights and analysis.
Track team announcements for technical upgrades and changes.

Don’t

Assume early performance reflects the entire season; many variables can change.
Neglect the importance of driver feedback in tuning car performance.
Overlook the impact of regulatory changes on team strategies.

Checklist

Stay informed about team standings and lap times during races.
Watch for news on driver contracts and team dynamics.
Be aware of upcoming circuits and how they may favour certain teams.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

The unpredictability of the sport remains a key concern, with reliability issues for Aston Martin presenting a significant risk to their season. Furthermore, ongoing discussions regarding engine regulations could lead to unforeseen changes impacting team performance throughout the year. Stakeholders in the sport should remain aware of these uncertainties as they unfold.

Bottom line

The pre-season testing in Bahrain has underscored a divided competitive landscape heading into the 2026 Formula 1 season, with Mercedes and Ferrari positioned as frontrunners, while Aston Martin's struggles raise concerns about their viability. As teams prepare for the opening race in Melbourne, the focus will be on performance, reliability, and the ongoing adaptation to new regulations.

FAQs

Who is the pre-season favourite for the 2026 Formula 1 championship?

George Russell of Mercedes is currently the pre-season favourite, showing strong performance during the final testing in Bahrain.

What issues is Aston Martin facing ahead of the season?

Aston Martin is struggling with reliability and competitiveness due to problems with their new Honda power unit, leaving them at a disadvantage.

How do the new hybrid power units affect driving in F1?

The new hybrid power units require drivers to manage energy more carefully, leading to changes in driving strategies and performance dynamics on track.