Is Kim Jong Un Reinventing His Leadership in North Korea?

North Korea's ruling Workers' Party has reaffirmed Kim Jong Un as its general secretary during the ongoing Ninth Congress. This decision, announced through state media, comes as no surprise given the Kim family's longstanding grip on power, which has lasted since the late 1940s. Under Kim's leadership, North Korea claims to have significantly enhanced its military capabilities, particularly in nuclear deterrence, despite the secrecy surrounding its technological advancements and the continuing international sanctions imposed on its nuclear weapons programme.

Last updated: 23 October 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

As the Ninth Congress unfolds, Kim Jong Un's continued leadership reflects the unbroken lineage of North Korean leadership, with his family firmly entrenched in power. The Congress, which began on 19 February 2023, is attended by around 5,000 party members and serves as a critical platform for discussing the regime's priorities, including its nuclear ambitions and economic strategies. The reshuffling of the party's presidium indicates a shift in internal dynamics, as more than half of its 39 members have been replaced since the last Congress in 2021.

Key takeaways

• Kim Jong Un remains the general secretary of the Workers' Party, reinforcing his established leadership.
• The party congress is a significant political event, occurring every five years, providing insight into North Korea's strategic direction.
• A substantial reshuffle of the party's presidium indicates possible changes in internal leadership dynamics.

Timeline: how we got here

The Ninth Congress marks a critical juncture for North Korea, with several key dates leading up to this moment:

• 19 February 2023: The Ninth Congress of the Workers' Party commences.
• 2021: The previous Congress occurred, marking the last major political gathering before this year's event.
• Late 1940s: The Kim family's rule in North Korea began, establishing a dynasty that has persisted through generations.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Recent announcements at the Congress highlight North Korea's continued focus on strengthening its military capabilities, specifically through nuclear deterrence. Kim Jong Un's commitment to improving the economy and living standards has been framed as urgent and historic, suggesting potential shifts in policy direction that may impact both domestic and international affairs.

What was already established

Kim Jong Un's leadership has been characterised by a focus on military development, particularly nuclear weapons. The regime has faced long-standing international sanctions due to its nuclear ambitions, complicating its economic situation. The Kim dynasty's grip on power has remained largely unchallenged, with the recent party congress serving as a platform for reinforcing this status quo.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The implications of North Korea's political developments on UK consumers are indirect but significant. Heightened tensions in East Asia could affect global markets, particularly in sectors such as defence and energy, potentially leading to increased prices and economic uncertainty in the UK.

Businesses and jobs

For UK businesses, particularly those involved in international trade or investment, the continuation of North Korea's aggressive military posture may pose risks. Companies may need to reassess their exposure to geopolitical tensions, especially in sectors susceptible to sanctions or changes in trade policy.

Policy and regulation

The UK government will likely continue to monitor developments in North Korea closely, adapting its foreign policy and sanctions regime as necessary. The ongoing situation could prompt discussions in Parliament about the UK's strategic approach to North Korea and its allies, as well as potential support for international diplomatic efforts.

Numbers that matter

• 5,000: The number of party members attending the Ninth Congress.
• 39: Total members of the party's presidium, with over half replaced since 2021.
• 13: Age of Kim Jong Un's daughter, Ju Ae, who is being positioned as a potential heir.

Definitions and jargon buster

• Workers' Party: The ruling party in North Korea, established in 1945, which controls the state's political and economic systems.
• Nuclear deterrence: A military strategy to prevent adversaries from attacking by ensuring they face unacceptable consequences.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, observers should watch for announcements from the Congress regarding North Korea's strategic military developments and economic policies. Any statements from Kim Jong Un about potential shifts in policy or international relations will be particularly significant.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Over the next few months, developments in North Korea's nuclear programme may evolve, especially if Kim follows through on promises made during the Congress. Additionally, any responses from the international community, including potential sanctions or diplomatic initiatives, will be crucial in shaping the region's geopolitical landscape.

Signals to watch

• Statements from North Korean officials regarding military capabilities and nuclear developments.
• International responses to North Korea's actions, particularly from the UN and key allies.
• Changes in the composition of the Workers' Party and its presidium that may indicate shifts in policy direction.

Practical guidance

Do

• Stay informed about North Korea's political developments and their potential implications for global security.
• Monitor government statements regarding sanctions and international relations related to North Korea.

Don’t

• Assume stability in the region; geopolitical tensions can escalate rapidly.
• Underestimate the significance of Kim Jong Un's leadership decisions and their impact on international relations.

Checklist

• Review news sources for updates on North Korea's military announcements.
• Track international responses to North Korea's actions.
• Consider how changes in North Korean policy might impact global markets.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

The situation in North Korea remains fluid, with many uncertainties surrounding its military capabilities and internal politics. The regime's secrecy complicates assessments of its technological progress, and any changes in leadership dynamics could lead to unpredictable outcomes. Additionally, the international community's response to North Korea's actions can vary widely, influencing the geopolitical landscape.

Bottom line

Kim Jong Un's reaffirmation as general secretary during the Workers' Party Congress underscores the continuity of the Kim regime in North Korea. As the country navigates its nuclear ambitions and economic challenges, the implications for UK interests, particularly in terms of global security and market stability, will warrant close attention.

FAQs

What is the significance of the Workers' Party Congress?

The Workers' Party Congress is a crucial political event in North Korea where leadership decisions are made, and the country's strategic direction is outlined, particularly regarding military and economic policies.

How does Kim Jong Un's leadership impact international relations?

Kim Jong Un's leadership, marked by a focus on nuclear development, influences international relations by heightening tensions with neighbouring countries and prompting responses from global powers, including sanctions and diplomatic efforts.

What is the future of Kim Jong Un's daughter, Ju Ae?

Ju Ae's increasing prominence at official events suggests she may be positioned as a potential heir to Kim Jong Un, which could have significant implications for North Korea's political future.