How Is Ukraine Honoring Its Fallen as the War Enters Year Five?

The ongoing war in Ukraine, which began with Russia's full-scale invasion four years ago, shows no signs of abating, as military losses mount and daily aerial attacks continue. On the fourth anniversary of the conflict, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reaffirmed the nation's resilience, stating, "We have defended our independence, we have not lost our statehood." Despite Russian ambitions, Ukraine's military remains steadfast in resisting further incursions, while the Kremlin acknowledges its objectives have not been fully realised.

Last updated: 14 November 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

As the war enters its fifth year, the situation in Ukraine remains critical. Despite initial expectations that Kyiv would fall quickly, the Ukrainian military has shown remarkable resilience against Russian forces. However, both sides continue to suffer heavy losses, with Ukraine facing near-daily aerial assaults that threaten civilian life and infrastructure. The conflict has not only been a military struggle but also a profound humanitarian crisis affecting millions across the country.

Key takeaways

The war has lasted four years, with no end in sight.
Ukrainian military resistance continues despite significant losses.
The Kremlin acknowledges its war aims have not been fully achieved.
Western support for Ukraine has intensified, but peace negotiations remain stalled.
Casualty figures for both sides are alarmingly high, with estimates reaching hundreds of thousands.

Timeline: how we got here

Since the onset of Russia's full-scale invasion on 24 February 2022, several key milestones have shaped the conflict:

February 2022: Russia launches a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, aiming to capture Kyiv.
March 2022: Ukrainian forces begin to mount a significant resistance, halting Russian advances in the north.
April 2022: Major battles for the Donbas region commence, with heavy fighting reported.
November 2022: Ukrainian forces recapture Kherson, marking a pivotal victory in the conflict.
November 2023: Ukraine commemorates four years of war, with ongoing military confrontations and humanitarian crises.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Recent statements from President Zelensky highlight the urgent need for enhanced military support from Western allies, particularly interceptor missiles, to bolster Ukraine's air defence capabilities. Meanwhile, the Kremlin remains defiant, insisting on continuing its offensive despite significant losses.

What was already established

It is well-documented that the war has led to severe humanitarian crises and unprecedented military casualties on both sides. Previous reports have indicated that Russia controls approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory, with the Ukrainian military successfully defending the Donbas region from complete capture.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The ongoing conflict has implications for UK consumers, particularly regarding energy prices, as disruptions in Ukrainian energy supplies can lead to higher costs. Moreover, the UK government is likely to see increased demands for humanitarian aid and support for Ukrainian refugees.

Businesses and jobs

UK businesses may face supply chain disruptions as the conflict continues, especially in sectors reliant on Ukrainian exports. The war's toll on global markets could lead to inflationary pressures affecting job stability and economic growth.

Policy and regulation

UK and EU policymakers are likely to continue discussions on military and humanitarian support for Ukraine. Upcoming consultations may focus on sanctions against Russia and the need for a coordinated response to the humanitarian crisis.

Numbers that matter

186,000: Identified Russian soldiers killed in the conflict, with estimates suggesting the true figure is higher.
1.25 million: Estimated total Russian casualties, according to UK Ministry of Defence, likely an under-estimate.
55,000: Officially reported Ukrainian military deaths, with higher estimates suggesting up to 200,000 casualties.
0.8%: Land captured by Russia in the past year, highlighting the high cost to Russian forces.
35: Countries involved in the Coalition of the Willing, indicating broad international support for Ukraine.

Definitions and jargon buster

Donbas: A region in eastern Ukraine, comprising the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, which has been a focal point of fighting.
Patriot air defence system: An advanced missile system used by Ukraine to intercept incoming threats.
Coalition of the Willing: A coalition of nations supporting Ukraine in its defence against Russian aggression.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

In the immediate future, observers should watch for any increases in military support from the West, particularly the delivery of interceptor missiles. Additionally, developments in peace negotiations will be closely monitored, particularly any shifts in Russia’s stance.

Medium term (1–6 months)

Over the next few months, the impact of winter on the conflict will be significant. Humanitarian aid efforts must be ramped up to address the needs of civilians affected by ongoing military actions.

Signals to watch

Changes in military support from Western nations, particularly the UK and US.
Casualty figures and reports from the battlefield that may indicate shifts in military dynamics.
Updates on peace negotiations and any new proposals from Russia or Ukraine.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed about the situation in Ukraine and its implications for international relations.
Support humanitarian efforts aimed at assisting Ukrainian civilians affected by the war.
Engage with discussions on how the UK can best support Ukraine through military and economic aid.

Don’t

Don’t dismiss the humanitarian impact of the war; every casualty represents a profound loss.
Don’t ignore the potential long-term effects of the conflict on global stability.
Don’t rely solely on media narratives; seek out diverse sources for a comprehensive understanding of the situation.

Checklist

Review current news updates related to the Ukraine conflict.
Understand the implications of military support for Ukraine.
Identify ways to contribute to humanitarian aid efforts.
Engage with community discussions about the war and its impact on the UK.
Monitor developments in peace negotiations and military actions.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

The situation in Ukraine is fluid, with many uncertainties surrounding military strategies and peace negotiations. Casualty figures are often contested, and the humanitarian crisis continues to evolve, making it challenging to predict future developments. Additionally, Russia’s military objectives may change, impacting the trajectory of the conflict.

Bottom line

As the war in Ukraine enters its fifth year, the resilience of its people remains evident. The conflict continues to pose significant challenges not only for Ukraine but also for global stability and security. The coming months will be crucial in determining the future of this war and the potential for a durable peace agreement.

FAQs

What is the current status of the war in Ukraine?

The war in Ukraine is ongoing, with heavy fighting continuing in the eastern regions and significant military losses reported on both sides.

How has Ukraine responded to Russian aggression?

Ukraine has mounted significant military resistance, bolstered by Western support, and continues to defend its sovereignty against Russian advances.

What are the implications of the conflict for the UK?

The conflict has led to increased energy prices and humanitarian needs in the UK, prompting discussions on how to best support Ukraine.