Is This Winter in the UK Really a Record Breaker Despite the Floods and Storms?

This winter has seen relentless rain and flooding in parts of the UK, leading many to wonder if record-breaking rainfall has occurred. Provisional statistics from the Met Office indicate that while the UK as a whole has experienced rainfall just 9% above average, significant regional variations reveal some areas, particularly in southern England, are on track for one of their wettest winters on record, while parts of Scotland have been notably drier.

Last updated: 25 February 2023 (BST)

What’s happening now

The current weather situation in the UK is marked by stark contrasts in rainfall across different regions. Southern England is experiencing one of its wettest winters, while much of Scotland is drier than normal. The Met Office has reported that as of 25 February, England as a whole has received 35% more rainfall than average for this time of year, with Northern Ireland at 25% above normal and Wales at 14% above. Meanwhile, Scotland has seen a 16% deficit in rainfall, highlighting the uneven distribution of weather patterns this winter.

Key takeaways

Overall UK rainfall is just 9% above average, but significant regional disparities exist.
Southern England is on track for its seventh-wettest winter since 1836.
Scotland has experienced 16% less rainfall than normal, despite some localised wet conditions.
A blocked weather pattern has led to repeated rain in some areas while leaving others dry.
Temperatures have been above average, but significant snow has been reported in certain regions.

Timeline: how we got here

The winter of 2022-2023 has unfolded with notable weather events and patterns impacting the UK. Key milestones include:

December 2022: The onset of winter began with average temperatures and typical precipitation levels.
January 2023: A blocked weather pattern developed, directing rain into southern England and eastern Scotland.
February 2023: By the 25th, the Met Office reported substantial regional rainfall discrepancies and the impact of storms.

What’s new vs what’s known

New today/this week

Recent reports from the Met Office indicate that southern England is experiencing unprecedented rainfall levels, with the potential for this winter to be one of the wettest on record for the region. Furthermore, a series of named storms—Bram, Goretti, Ingrid, and Chandra—have contributed significantly to localised flooding and damage.

What was already established

Prior to these developments, climatological studies indicated a trend of warming winters and increased precipitation across the UK. Since the 1950s, winters have warmed by approximately 1°C (1.8°F), with predictions indicating that winters could become 1 to 4.5°C (1.8 to 8.1°F) warmer by the end of the century if greenhouse gas emissions continue at current levels.

Impact for the UK

Consumers and households

The significant rainfall this winter has resulted in increased household bills, particularly for those in affected areas who may face flooding. Disruption in transportation due to repeated storms has also impacted travel plans, especially in southern England.

Businesses and jobs

Supply chains have been affected, particularly in regions where flooding has disrupted logistics and delivery services. Businesses reliant on stable weather conditions, such as agriculture and tourism, have faced challenges, with some reports of crop damage due to waterlogged fields.

Policy and regulation

Local and national governments are likely to face increased scrutiny regarding flood preparedness and emergency response measures. Upcoming consultations on climate adaptation strategies are expected as policymakers look to address the implications of changing weather patterns on infrastructure and public safety.

Numbers that matter

35%: The increase in average rainfall across England compared to typical winter levels.
25%: The increase in rainfall experienced in Northern Ireland this winter.
14%: The rise in rainfall for Wales compared to the historical average.
16%: The reduction in rainfall across Scotland, indicating a significant regional anomaly.
99 mph (159 km/h): The highest wind gust recorded during Storm Goretti, impacting Cornwall.

Definitions and jargon buster

Blocked weather pattern: A situation where high pressure stalls weather systems, leading to prolonged weather in specific areas.
Jet stream: A fast-flowing air current in the atmosphere that influences weather patterns.
Named storms: Storms that have been given a specific name by meteorological services to raise awareness and preparedness.

How to think about the next steps

Near term (0–4 weeks)

With meteorological winter concluding at the end of February, it is essential to monitor weather forecasts closely for any further developments. Homeowners in flood-prone areas should prepare for potential flooding and consider measures to protect their properties.

Medium term (1–6 months)

As spring approaches, it will be crucial to assess the impact of winter rainfall on agriculture and infrastructure. Planners and local authorities may need to review flood management strategies to mitigate future risks.

Signals to watch

Weather forecasts for additional storms or rainfall patterns.
Government announcements regarding flood relief and infrastructure investment.
Reports on agricultural impacts due to the winter weather.

Practical guidance

Do

Stay informed by following weather updates and advisories from the Met Office.
Prepare your home for potential flooding by securing valuables and creating a plan.
Engage with local community efforts for flood preparedness and response.

Don’t

Ignore flood warnings or advice from local authorities.
Assume that previous winters’ experiences apply; each winter can vary significantly.
Delay taking action until the last minute; proactive measures can mitigate damage.

Checklist

Check your home insurance policy for flood coverage.
Keep emergency supplies ready, including food, water, and medical essentials.
Review your local flood risk and prepare evacuation routes if necessary.
Monitor local news for updates regarding road conditions and transport disruptions.
Join community forums to discuss experiences and strategies related to extreme weather.

Risks, caveats, and uncertainties

The situation remains fluid, and predictions regarding future weather patterns can change rapidly. While the Met Office has provided valuable insights, the exact trajectory of upcoming storms and rainfall remains uncertain. Additionally, the long-term impacts of climate change may further complicate weather forecasts and their implications for the UK.

Bottom line

This winter illustrates the increasing variability of UK weather patterns, with significant rainfall impacting some regions while leaving others comparatively dry. As the UK continues to experience the effects of climate change, residents and authorities must adapt to these shifts in weather patterns to mitigate future risks effectively.

FAQs

Will the rainfall continue into spring?

While forecasts indicate potential rainfall as winter ends, it is uncertain how much will persist into spring. Monitoring updates from the Met Office will provide more clarity on upcoming weather patterns.

What should I do if my area is at risk of flooding?

If your area is at risk of flooding, ensure you have a flood emergency plan, secure your property, and stay updated on local weather advisories.

How does climate change affect winter weather in the UK?

Climate change is leading to warmer and wetter winters in the UK, with increased rainfall and fewer frost days observed compared to previous decades, impacting local ecosystems and weather patterns.