How Did Three Decades Under One Leader Dash Eritreans' Hopes?

The Long Reign of Isaias Afwerki: A Study of Power, Governance, and Hope in Eritrea

Over three decades in power, President Isaias Afwerki of Eritrea has become a figure of both reverence and revulsion. Once celebrated as a liberating hero, his transformation into an autocratic ruler raises questions about governance, democracy, and the future of Eritrea. This article delves into the complex history of Isaias Afwerki's leadership, the socio-political landscape of Eritrea, and the dire situation that many Eritreans find themselves in today.

A Glorious Past: The Rise of a Leader

Isaias Afwerki emerged as a key figure in Eritrea's independence struggle, leading the Eritrean People's Liberation Front (EPLF) to victory against Ethiopia in 1991. This victory marked the beginning of a new era for Eritrea, culminating in formal independence in 1993. During the early years, Isaias was viewed as a beacon of hope. His charismatic leadership and promises of democratic governance resonated with both Eritreans and the international community.

In 1993, Isaias expressed a commitment to democratic principles at a continental leaders' summit in Cairo. His call for a break from the long-standing tradition of autocratic leadership in Africa was met with widespread approval. As Eritrea drafted its constitution, hopes soared that the country would embark on a path of political reform and social development.

The Turn Towards Autocracy

However, the optimism of the 1990s began to dissipate in the late 1990s. The outbreak of the Eritrean-Ethiopian War in 1998 served as a turning point, with many accusing Isaias of using the conflict as a pretext to postpone elections indefinitely. Promises of a multiparty political system faded, and the G-15, a group of reform-minded officials, began to voice their concerns over Isaias's increasingly autocratic tendencies.

In 2001, the Eritrean government cracked down on dissent, shutting down independent newspapers and arresting critics, including members of the G-15. This move effectively silenced opposition voices and marked the end of any genuine attempts at democratization. As Isaias himself stated, he had “never had any intention of participating in political parties,” signaling a clear departure from his earlier commitments.

Struggling Under Repression: The Current State of Eritrea

Today, Eritrea remains one of the most repressive regimes globally. The indefinite suspension of the constitution and the concentration of power in the president's office have led to a climate of fear and uncertainty. Many Eritreans live under the shadow of forced conscription, with young people trapped in a cycle of national service that can last indefinitely. The government justifies this by citing ongoing tensions with neighboring countries, yet the reality for many is a grim existence marked by oppression and despair.

The economy has also suffered under Isaias's rule. According to the World Bank, Eritrea's economic activity is hampered by underdeveloped infrastructure, state dominance, and strict import controls. The president himself acknowledged these challenges in a December 2022 interview, admitting that a subsistence economy would lead nowhere. Despite these issues, he continues to reject humanitarian aid, fearing it would create dependency.

The Exodus of Eritreans: A Humanitarian Crisis

In light of the oppressive conditions, many Eritreans have sought to flee the country in search of freedom and a better life. The past two decades have seen hundreds of thousands embark on perilous journeys across deserts and seas, risking their lives to escape a regime that offers them little hope. Eritreans are now one of the most common nationalities among refugees granted asylum in various countries, including the UK.

Isaias Afwerki's Isolation and the Future of Eritrea

As Isaias marks his 32nd year in power, the question of succession looms large. Reports suggest that an attempt to groom his eldest son for leadership was thwarted in a 2018 cabinet meeting, leaving the nation without a clear path forward. The absence of credible opposition further complicates the situation, with many fearing that the country could descend into chaos if Isaias were to suddenly leave power.

Despite growing frustration among the populace, Isaias retains a core support base, particularly within the military and ruling party networks. His supporters view him as a symbol of national independence, often framing criticism of his regime as an attack on Eritrea’s sovereignty. This perspective is prevalent among some in the diaspora, who believe Western nations are conspiring to undermine Eritrea’s autonomy.

A Call for Change: Hope Amidst Despair

As Isaias nears 80, the Eritrean populace remains in a state of anxious anticipation. Many are left wondering if he will ever fulfill the promises made during the early years of independence. The absence of any discussion about a new constitution, national elections, or the release of political prisoners during recent public addresses has left many disillusioned.

Nevertheless, some Eritreans cling to hope for change. In recent appearances, Isaias has been seen engaging in public religious ceremonies, which some interpret as a search for spiritual redemption. Others remain skeptical, questioning whether this is merely a façade designed to placate an increasingly restless population.

Conclusion

The story of Isaias Afwerki is one of profound contradictions. From a liberator to a dictator, his reign encapsulates the struggles faced by many African nations in their quest for democracy and stability. As hope for change flickers dimly in Eritrea, the future remains uncertain. Will Isaias ever relinquish his grip on power, or will Eritreans continue to endure a regime that stifles their voices and dreams? The answers are not yet clear.

FAQs

What led to Isaias Afwerki's initial popularity?

Isaias Afwerki was initially popular due to his role as a liberation leader during Eritrea's independence struggle. His promises of democratic governance and development resonated with the population and garnered international support.

What happened to the G-15?

The G-15, a group of reform-minded officials, was arrested in 2001 after they called for democratic reforms. They have not been seen or heard from since, marking a significant crackdown on dissent in Eritrea.

How does the Eritrean economy currently function?

The Eritrean economy is characterized by underdeveloped infrastructure, limited competition due to state control, and strict import regulations. The situation has led to widespread poverty and hardship for many citizens.

Why do many Eritreans flee the country?

Many Eritreans flee due to oppressive government practices, forced conscription, and a lack of political freedom. The search for a better life and freedom from repression drives many to undertake dangerous journeys to seek asylum in other countries.

Is there a succession plan for Isaias Afwerki?

There is currently no clear succession plan for Isaias Afwerki. Reports suggest attempts to groom his eldest son for leadership have failed, leaving uncertainty about the future direction of the country.

The enduring question remains: What will it take for Eritrea to emerge from the shadows of repression and embrace the democratic ideals that once inspired its people? #Eritrea #IsaiasAfwerki #HumanRights